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半参数双重稳健目标化双重机器学习综述AI 解读

In this review we cover the basics of efficient nonparametric parameter estimation (also called functional estimation), with a focus on parameters that arise in causal inference problems. We review both efficiency bounds (i.e., what is the best possible performance for estimating a given parameter?) and the analysis of particular estimators (i.e., what is this estimator's error, and does it attain the efficiency bound?) under weak assumptions. We emphasize minimax-style…

环境流行病学中因果暴露反应曲线的贝叶斯高斯过程估计AI 解读

Motivated by environmental policy questions, we address the challenges of estimation, change point detection, and uncertainty quantification of a causal exposure-response function (CERF). Under a potential outcome framework, the CERF describes the relationship between a continuously varying exposure (or treatment) and its causal effect on an outcome. We propose a new Bayesian approach that relies on a Gaussian process (GP) model to estimate the CERF nonparametrically. To…

边际结构模型中的自动化目标贝叶斯与目标最小损失估计推断AI 解读

Two of the principle tasks of causal inference are to define and estimate the effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest. Formally, such treatment effects are defined as a possibly functional summary of the data generating distribution, and are referred to as target parameters. Estimation of the target parameter can be difficult, especially when it is high-dimensional. Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) provide a way to summarize such target parameters in terms of a…

个体化处理效应估计中的对抗去混杂AI 解读

Observational studies have recently received significant attention from the machine learning community due to the increasingly available non-experimental observational data and the limitations of the experimental studies, such as considerable cost, impracticality, small and less representative sample sizes, etc. In observational studies, de-confounding is a fundamental problem of individualised treatment effects (ITE) estimation. This paper proposes disentangled…

因子结构结局研究中对未观测混杂的敏感性AI 解读

In this work, we propose an approach for assessing sensitivity to unobserved confounding in studies with multiple outcomes. We demonstrate how prior knowledge unique to the multi-outcome setting can be leveraged to strengthen causal conclusions beyond what can be achieved from analyzing individual outcomes in isolation. We argue that it is often reasonable to make a shared confounding assumption, under which residual dependence amongst outcomes can be used to simplify and…

针对零膨胀中介变量的新型因果中介分析方法AI 解读

Mediation analyses play important roles in making causal inference in biomedical research to examine causal pathways that may be mediated by one or more intermediate variables (i.e., mediators). Although mediation frameworks have been well established such as counterfactual-outcomes (i.e., potential-outcomes) models and traditional linear mediation models, little effort has been devoted to dealing with mediators with zero-inflated structures due to challenges associated with…

利用二元工具变量在未观测混杂下估计个体处理效应AI 解读

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) from observational data is relevant in many fields such as personalized medicine. However, in practice, the treatment assignment is usually confounded by unobserved variables and thus introduces bias. A remedy to remove the bias is the use of instrumental variables (IVs). Such settings are widespread in medicine (e.g., trials where the treatment assignment is used as binary IV). In this paper, we propose a novel,…

混合随机化与断点设计的核回归分析AI 解读

Tie-breaker experimental designs are hybrids of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and Regression Discontinuity Designs (RDDs) in which subjects with moderate scores are placed in an RCT while subjects with extreme scores are deterministically assigned to the treatment or control group. In settings where it is unfair or uneconomical to deny the treatment to the more deserving recipients, the tie-breaker design (TBD) trades off the practical advantages of the RDD with the…

数据受限条件下的因果推断AI 解读

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we propose a method under the principal stratification framework to identify and estimate the average treatment effects on a binary outcome, conditional on the counterfactual status of a post-treatment intermediate response. Under mild…

协变量调整的对数秩检验：效率增益与广泛适用性AI 解读

Nonparametric covariate adjustment is considered for log-rank type tests of treatment effect with right-censored time-to-event data from clinical trials applying covariate-adaptive randomization. Our proposed covariate-adjusted log-rank test has a simple explicit formula and a guaranteed efficiency gain over the unadjusted test. We also show that our proposed test achieves universal applicability in the sense that the same formula of test can be universally applied to simple…

平均处理效应的回归调整插补估计量AI 解读

Imputing missing potential outcomes using an estimated regression function is a natural idea for estimating causal effects. In the literature, estimators that combine imputation and regression adjustments are believed to be comparable to augmented inverse probability weighting. Accordingly, people for a long time conjectured that such estimators, while avoiding directly constructing the weights, are also doubly robust (Imbens, 2004; Stuart, 2010). Generalizing an earlier…

稳定概率加权：有限重叠下多值处理异质性因果效应的估计与推断AI 解读

In this paper, I try to tame "Basu's elephants" (data with extreme selection on observables). I propose new practical large-sample and finite-sample methods for estimating and inferring heterogeneous causal effects (under unconfoundedness) in the empirically relevant context of limited overlap. I develop a general principle called "Stable Probability Weighting" (SPW) that can be used as an alternative to the widely used Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) technique, which…

用于反事实估计的最优传输方法AI 解读

Many problems ask a question that can be formulated as a causal question: "what would have happened if...?" For example, "would the person have had surgery if he or she had been Black?" To address this kind of questions, calculating an average treatment effect (ATE) is often uninformative, because one would like to know how much impact a variable (such as skin color) has on a specific individual, characterized by certain covariates. Trying to calculate a conditional ATE…

事件时间结局的主分层分析AI 解读

Post-randomization events, also known as intercurrent events, such as treatment noncompliance and censoring due to a terminal event, are common in clinical trials. Principal stratification is a framework for causal inference in the presence of intercurrent events. Despite the extensive existing literature, there lacks generally applicable and accessible methods for principal stratification analysis with time-to-event outcomes. In this paper, we specify two causal estimands…

合成控制模型的非参数可识别性与敏感性分析AI 解读

Quantifying cause and effect relationships is an important problem in many domains. The gold standard solution is to conduct a randomised controlled trial. However, in many situations such trials cannot be performed. In the absence of such trials, many methods have been devised to quantify the causal impact of an intervention from observational data given certain assumptions. One widely used method are synthetic control models. While identifiability of the causal estimand in…

倾向得分模型的稳健估计及因果目标量应用：综述与新方案AI 解读

In observational study, the propensity score has the central role to estimate causal effects. Since the propensity score is usually unknown, estimating by appropriate procedures is an indispensable step. A point to note that a causal effect estimator might have some bias if a propensity score model was misspecified; valid model construction is important. To overcome the problem, a variety of interesting methods has been proposed. In this paper, we review four methods: using…

阶段树模型的评分等价性AI 解读

Staged trees are a recently-developed, powerful family of probabilistic graphical models. An equivalence class of staged trees has now been characterised, and two fundamental statistical operators have been defined to traverse the equivalence class of a given staged tree. Here, two staged trees are said to be statistically equivalent when they represent the same set of distributions. Probabilistic graphical models such as staged trees are increasingly being used for causal…

典型多变量缺失机制下因果效应的可恢复性与估计AI 解读

In the context of missing data, the identifiability or "recoverability" of the average causal effect (ACE) depends on causal and missingness assumptions. The latter can be depicted by adding variable-specific missingness indicators to causal diagrams, creating "missingness-directed acyclic graphs" (m-DAGs). Previous research described ten canonical m-DAGs, representing typical multivariable missingness mechanisms in epidemiological studies, and determined the recoverability…

无对照组两时点数据的重抽样因果推断及健康风险应用AI 解读

Two-point time-series data, characterized by baseline and follow-up observations, are frequently encountered in health research. We study a novel two-point time series structure without a control group, which is driven by an observational routine clinical dataset collected to monitor key risk markers of type-$2$ diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We propose a resampling approach called 'I-Rand' for independently sampling one of the two time points for each…

类别型背景变量下的深度反事实估计AI 解读

Referred to as the third rung of the causal inference ladder, counterfactual queries typically ask the "What if ?" question retrospectively. The standard approach to estimate counterfactuals resides in using a structural equation model that accurately reflects the underlying data generating process. However, such models are seldom available in practice and one usually wishes to infer them from observational data alone. Unfortunately, the correct structural equation model is…

高维控制变量下条件平均处理效应的双重稳健推断AI 解读

Plausible identification of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) may rely on controlling for a large number of variables to account for confounding factors. In these high-dimensional settings, estimation of the CATE requires estimating first-stage models whose consistency relies on correctly specifying their parametric forms. While doubly-robust estimators of the CATE exist, inference procedures based on the second stage CATE estimator are not doubly-robust. Using…

因果中介分析：边际自然直接与间接效应的稳健估计策略AI 解读

This paper aims to provide practitioners of causal mediation analysis with a better understanding of estimation options. We take as inputs two familiar strategies (weighting and model-based prediction) and a simple way of combining them (weighted models), and show how a range of estimators can be generated, with different modeling requirements and robustness properties. The primary goal is to help build intuitive appreciation for robust estimation that is conducive to sound…

协变量偏移下因果效应推广与迁移的分析框架AI 解读

Randomized experiments are an excellent tool for estimating internally valid causal effects with the sample at hand, but their external validity is frequently debated. While classical results on the estimation of Population Average Treatment Effects (PATE) implicitly assume random selection into experiments, this is typically far from true in many medical, social-scientific, and industry experiments. When the experimental sample is different from the target sample along…

排序数据的因果推断：警察暴力责任归因与排序投票中的选票顺序效应AI 解读

While rankings are at the heart of social science research, little is known about how to analyze ranking data in experimental studies. This paper introduces a potential-outcomes framework to perform causal inference when outcome data are ranking data. It introduces a class of causal estimands tailored to ranked outcomes and develops methods for estimation and inference. Furthermore, it extends the framework to partially ranked data. I show that partial rankings can be…