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利用多个环境的观测数据检测隐藏混杂AI 解读

A common assumption in causal inference from observational data is that there is no hidden confounding. Yet it is, in general, impossible to verify this assumption from a single dataset. Under the assumption of independent causal mechanisms underlying the data-generating process, we demonstrate a way to detect unobserved confounders when having multiple observational datasets coming from different environments. We present a theory for testable conditional independencies that…

条件随机化下的高精度因果模型评估AI 解读

The gold standard for causal model evaluation involves comparing model predictions with true effects estimated from randomized controlled trials (RCT). However, RCTs are not always feasible or ethical to perform. In contrast, conditionally randomized experiments based on inverse probability weighting (IPW) offer a more realistic approach but may suffer from high estimation variance. To tackle this challenge and enhance causal model evaluation in real-world conditional…

模型误设下利用限制平均生存时间估计治疗效应：模拟研究AI 解读

The use of the non-parametric Restricted Mean Survival Time endpoint (RMST) has grown in popularity as trialists look to analyse time-to-event outcomes without the restrictions of the proportional hazards assumption. In this paper, we evaluate the power and type I error rate of the parametric and non-parametric RMST estimators when treatment effect is explained by multiple covariates, including an interaction term. Utilising the RMST estimator in this way allows the combined…

基于机器学习协变量表示的因果推断AI 解读

Utilizing covariate information has been a powerful approach to improve the efficiency and accuracy for causal inference, which support massive amount of randomized experiments run on data-driven enterprises. However, state-of-art approaches can become practically unreliable when the dimension of covariate increases to just 50, whereas experiments on large platforms can observe even higher dimension of covariate. We propose a machine-learning-assisted covariate…

匹配元组与完全区组析因设计的统计推断AI 解读

This paper studies inference in randomized controlled trials with multiple treatments, where treatment status is determined according to a "matched tuples" design. Here, by a matched tuples design, we mean an experimental design where units are sampled i.i.d. from the population of interest, grouped into "homogeneous" blocks with cardinality equal to the number of treatments, and finally, within each block, each treatment is assigned exactly once uniformly at random. We…

多变量因果模型中可扩展的反事实分布估计AI 解读

We consider the problem of estimating the counterfactual joint distribution of multiple quantities of interests (e.g., outcomes) in a multivariate causal model extended from the classical difference-in-difference design. Existing methods for this task either ignore the correlation structures among dimensions of the multivariate outcome by considering univariate causal models on each dimension separately and hence produce incorrect counterfactual distributions, or poorly…

通过正则化与聚类联合分配森林实现多处理臂个性化分配AI 解读

We consider learning personalized assignments to one of many treatment arms from a randomized controlled trial. Standard methods that estimate heterogeneous treatment effects separately for each arm may perform poorly in this case due to excess variance. We instead propose methods that pool information across treatment arms: First, we consider a regularized forest-based assignment algorithm based on greedy recursive partitioning that shrinks effect estimates across arms.…

必要且充分因果图的学习AI 解读

The causal revolution has stimulated interest in understanding complex relationships in various fields. Most of the existing methods aim to discover causal relationships among all variables within a complex large-scale graph. However, in practice, only a small subset of variables in the graph are relevant to the outcomes of interest. Consequently, causal estimation with the full causal graph -- particularly given limited data -- could lead to numerous falsely discovered,…

隐藏混杂下因果结果的集成预测区间AI 解读

Causal inference of exact individual treatment outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders is rarely possible. Recent work has extended prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees to partially identifiable causal outcomes, by means of a sensitivity model for hidden confounding. In deep learning, predictors can exploit their inductive biases for better generalization out of sample. We argue that the structure inherent to a deep ensemble should inform a tighter…

加性噪声模型中寻找因果顺序的尺度不变排序准则AI 解读

Additive Noise Models (ANMs) are a common model class for causal discovery from observational data and are often used to generate synthetic data for causal discovery benchmarking. Specifying an ANM requires choosing all parameters, including those not fixed by explicit assumptions. Reisach et al. (2021) show that sorting variables by increasing variance often yields an ordering close to a causal order and introduce var-sortability to quantify this alignment. Since increasing…

核处理效应的高效双重稳健检验AI 解读

The average treatment effect, which is the difference in expectation of the counterfactuals, is probably the most popular target effect in causal inference with binary treatments. However, treatments may have effects beyond the mean, for instance decreasing or increasing the variance. We propose a new kernel-based test for distributional effects of the treatment. It is, to the best of our knowledge, the first kernel-based, doubly-robust test with provably valid type-I error.…

Text-Transport：自然语言因果效应的跨域迁移AI 解读

As language technologies gain prominence in real-world settings, it is important to understand how changes to language affect reader perceptions. This can be formalized as the causal effect of varying a linguistic attribute (e.g., sentiment) on a reader's response to the text. In this paper, we introduce Text-Transport, a method for estimation of causal effects from natural language under any text distribution. Current approaches for valid causal effect estimation require…

多变量函数型数据因果发现的有向循环图模型AI 解读

Discovering causal relationship using multivariate functional data has received a significant amount of attention very recently. In this article, we introduce a functional linear structural equation model for causal structure learning when the underlying graph involving the multivariate functions may have cycles. To enhance interpretability, our model involves a low-dimensional causal embedded space such that all the relevant causal information in the multivariate functional…

PAM-HC：利用外部数据构建随机临床试验混合对照的贝叶斯非参数方法AI 解读

It is highly desirable to borrow information from external data to augment a control arm in a randomized clinical trial, especially in settings where the sample size for the control arm is limited. However, a main challenge in borrowing information from external data is to accommodate potential heterogeneous subpopulations across the external and trial data. We apply a Bayesian nonparametric model called Plaid Atoms Model (PAM) to identify overlapping and unique…

Meek 分隔集及其在目标导向因果发现中的应用AI 解读

Learning causal structures from interventional data is a fundamental problem with broad applications across various fields. While many previous works have focused on recovering the entire causal graph, in practice, there are scenarios where learning only part of the causal graph suffices. This is called $targeted$ causal discovery. In our work, we focus on two such well-motivated problems: subset search and causal matching. We aim to minimize the number of interventions in…

混杂变量依赖的贝叶斯混合模型：空气污染因果效应的异质性AI 解读

Several epidemiological studies have provided evidence that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases mortality risk. Furthermore, some population characteristics (e.g., age, race, and socioeconomic status) might play a crucial role in understanding vulnerability to air pollution. To inform policy, it is necessary to identify groups of the population that are more or less vulnerable to air pollution. In causal inference literature, the Group Average…

混合因果—非因果、可逆—不可逆模型的谱识别与估计AI 解读

This paper introduces new techniques for estimating, identifying and simulating mixed causal-noncausal invertible-noninvertible models. We propose a framework that integrates high-order cumulants, merging both the spectrum and bispectrum into a single estimation function. The model that most adequately represents the data under the assumption that the error term is i.i.d. is selected. Our Monte Carlo study reveals unbiased parameter estimates and a high frequency with which…

用于交互式推荐的通用神经因果模型AI 解读

Survivor bias in observational data leads the optimization of recommender systems towards local optima. Currently most solutions re-mines existing human-system collaboration patterns to maximize longer-term satisfaction by reinforcement learning. However, from the causal perspective, mitigating survivor effects requires answering a counterfactual problem, which is generally unidentifiable and inestimable. In this work, we propose a neural causal model to achieve…

混杂变量非随机缺失时因果效应的识别与估计AI 解读

Making causal inferences from observational studies can be challenging when confounders are missing not at random. In such cases, identifying causal effects is often not guaranteed. Motivated by a real example, we consider a treatment-independent missingness assumption under which we establish the identification of causal effects when confounders are missing not at random. We propose a weighted estimating equation (WEE) approach for estimating model parameters and introduce…

响应变量受到一般干预时的不变表示学习AI 解读

It has become increasingly common nowadays to collect observations of feature and response pairs from different environments. As a consequence, one has to apply learned predictors to data with a different distribution due to distribution shifts. One principled approach is to adopt the structural causal models to describe training and test models, following the invariance principle which says that the conditional distribution of the response given its predictors remains the…

不确定因果网络中的因果效应识别AI 解读

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example,…

利用GWAS汇总数据推断非线性因果效应AI 解读

Large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have offered an exciting opportunity to discover putative causal genes or risk factors associated with diseases by using SNPs as instrumental variables (IVs). However, conventional approaches assume linear causal relations partly for simplicity and partly for the availability of GWAS summary data. In this work, we propose a novel model {for transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS)} to incorporate nonlinear relationships…

通过函数型生存分析刻画动态处理效应类型AI 解读

In recent years, research interest in personalised treatments has been growing. However, treatment effect heterogeneity and possibly time-varying treatment effects are still often overlooked in clinical studies. Statistical tools are needed for the identification of treatment response patterns, taking into account that treatment response is not constant over time. We aim to provide an innovative method to obtain dynamic treatment effect phenotypes on a time-to-event outcome,…

CATE Lasso：高维线性回归中的条件平均处理效应估计AI 解读

In causal inference about two treatments, Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) play an important role as a quantity representing an individualized causal effect, defined as a difference between the expected outcomes of the two treatments conditioned on covariates. This study assumes two linear regression models between a potential outcome and covariates of the two treatments and defines CATEs as a difference between the linear regression models. Then, we propose a…