论文检索

面向人类偏好的语言模型优化是一个因果推断问题AI 解读

As large language models (LLMs) see greater use in academic and commercial settings, there is increasing interest in methods that allow language models to generate texts aligned with human preferences. In this paper, we present an initial exploration of language model optimization for human preferences from direct outcome datasets, where each sample consists of a text and an associated numerical outcome measuring the reader's response. We first propose that language model…

将增广平衡权重表示为线性回归AI 解读

We provide a novel characterization of augmented balancing weights, also known as automatic debiased machine learning (AutoDML). These popular doubly robust or de-biased machine learning estimators combine outcome modeling with balancing weights - weights that achieve covariate balance directly in lieu of estimating and inverting the propensity score. When the outcome and weighting models are both linear in some (possibly infinite) basis, we show that the augmented estimator…

基于回归的近端因果推断AI 解读

Negative controls are increasingly used to evaluate the presence of potential unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Beyond the use of negative controls to detect the presence of residual confounding, proximal causal inference (PCI) was recently proposed to de-bias confounded causal effect estimates, by leveraging a pair of treatment and outcome negative control or confounding proxy variables. While formal methods for statistical inference have been developed for…

DoubleML：R 中双重机器学习的面向对象实现AI 解读

The R package DoubleML implements the double/debiased machine learning framework of Chernozhukov et al. (2018). It provides functionalities to estimate parameters in causal models based on machine learning methods. The double machine learning framework consist of three key ingredients: Neyman orthogonality, high-quality machine learning estimation and sample splitting. Estimation of nuisance components can be performed by various state-of-the-art machine learning methods…

用于因果效应估计的校准与共形倾向得分AI 解读

Propensity scores are commonly used to estimate treatment effects from observational data. We argue that the probabilistic output of a learned propensity score model should be calibrated -- i.e., a predictive treatment probability of 90% should correspond to 90% of individuals being assigned the treatment group -- and we propose simple recalibration techniques to ensure this property. We prove that calibration is a necessary condition for unbiased treatment effect estimation…

从短期实验推断持续处理的长期因果效应AI 解读

We study inference on the long-term causal effect of a continual exposure to a novel intervention, which we term a long-term treatment, based on an experiment involving only short-term observations. Key examples include the long-term health effects of regularly-taken medicine or of environmental hazards and the long-term effects on users of changes to an online platform. This stands in contrast to short-term treatments or "shocks," whose long-term effect can reasonably be…

LongBet：面板数据中的异质性处理效应估计AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects of binary treatment in panel data, particularly focusing on short panel data with large cross-sectional data and observed confoundings. In contrast to traditional literature in difference-in-differences method that often relies on the parallel trend assumption, our proposed model does not necessitate such an assumption. Instead, it leverages observed confoundings to impute potential…

小规模先导实验下奈曼分配的表现AI 解读

The Neyman Allocation is used in many papers on experimental design, which typically assume that researchers have access to large pilot studies. This may be unrealistic. To understand the properties of the Neyman Allocation with small pilots, we study its behavior in an asymptotic framework that takes pilot size to be fixed even as the size of the main wave tends to infinity. Our analysis shows that the Neyman Allocation can lead to estimates of the ATE with higher…

用于多元时间序列因果预测的组合式动态建模AI 解读

Theoretical developments in sequential Bayesian analysis of multivariate dynamic models underlie new methodology for causal prediction. This extends the utility of existing models with computationally efficient methodology, enabling routine exploration of Bayesian counterfactual analyses with multiple selected time series as synthetic controls. Methodological contributions also define the concept of outcome adaptive modelling to monitor and inferentially respond to changes…

存在潜在混杂变量时 LiNGAM 模型的因果效应识别AI 解读

We study the generic identifiability of causal effects in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) with latent variables. We consider the problem in two main settings: When the causal graph is known a priori, and when it is unknown. In both settings, we provide a complete graphical characterization of the identifiable direct or total causal effects among observed variables. Moreover, we propose efficient algorithms to certify the graphical conditions. Finally, we propose…

通过双阶段扰动检验实现必要性与充分性特征归因AI 解读

We investigate the problem of explainability for machine learning models, focusing on Feature Attribution Methods (FAMs) that evaluate feature importance through perturbation tests. Despite their utility, FAMs struggle to distinguish the contributions of different features, when their prediction changes are similar after perturbation. To enhance FAMs' discriminative power, we introduce Feature Attribution with Necessity and Sufficiency (FANS), which find a neighborhood of…

迈向因果基础模型：因果推断与注意力机制的对偶关系AI 解读

Foundation models have brought changes to the landscape of machine learning, demonstrating sparks of human-level intelligence across a diverse array of tasks. However, a gap persists in complex tasks such as causal inference, primarily due to challenges associated with intricate reasoning steps and high numerical precision requirements. In this work, we take a first step towards building causally-aware foundation models for treatment effect estimations. We propose a novel,…

用更少的条件独立检验进行因果发现AI 解读

Many questions in science center around the fundamental problem of understanding causal relationships. However, most constraint-based causal discovery algorithms, including the well-celebrated PC algorithm, often incur an exponential number of conditional independence (CI) tests, posing limitations in various applications. Addressing this, our work focuses on characterizing what can be learned about the underlying causal graph with a reduced number of CI tests. We show that…

气候归因中的高维格兰杰因果分析AI 解读

In this paper we test for Granger causality in high-dimensional vector autoregressive models (VARs) to disentangle and interpret the complex causal chains linking radiative forcings and global temperatures. By allowing for high dimensionality in the model, we can enrich the information set with relevant natural and anthropogenic forcing variables to obtain reliable causal relations. This provides a step forward from existing climatology literature, which has mostly treated…

通过噪声对比后门调整检验因果关联的核方法AI 解读

Causal inference grows increasingly complex as the number of confounders increases. Given treatments $X$, confounders $Z$ and outcomes $Y$, we develop a non-parametric method to test the \textit{do-null} hypothesis $H_0:\; p(y|\text{\it do}(X=x))=p(y)$ against the general alternative. Building on the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) for marginal independence testing, we propose backdoor-HSIC (bd-HSIC) and demonstrate that it is calibrated and has power for both…

DISCRET：为治疗效应估计生成忠实解释AI 解读

Designing faithful yet accurate AI models is challenging, particularly in the field of individual treatment effect estimation (ITE). ITE prediction models deployed in critical settings such as healthcare should ideally be (i) accurate, and (ii) provide faithful explanations. However, current solutions are inadequate: state-of-the-art black-box models do not supply explanations, post-hoc explainers for black-box models lack faithfulness guarantees, and self-interpretable…

学习线性结构因果模型的因果抽象AI 解读

The need for modelling causal knowledge at different levels of granularity arises in several settings. Causal Abstraction provides a framework for formalizing this problem by relating two Structural Causal Models at different levels of detail. Despite increasing interest in applying causal abstraction, e.g. in the interpretability of large machine learning models, the graphical and parametrical conditions under which a causal model can abstract another are not known.…

通过分割实现暴露—结果对的多项式时间局部因果发现AI 解读

Causal discovery is crucial for causal inference in observational studies, as it can enable the identification of valid adjustment sets (VAS) for unbiased effect estimation. However, global causal discovery is notoriously hard in the nonparametric setting, with exponential time and sample complexity in the worst case. To address this, we propose local discovery by partitioning (LDP): a local causal discovery method that is tailored for downstream inference tasks without…

高维异质性治疗效应估计的可微帕累托平滑加权AI 解读

There is a growing interest in estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals using their high-dimensional feature attributes. Achieving high performance in such high-dimensional heterogeneous treatment effect estimation is challenging because in this setup, it is usual that some features induce sample selection bias while others do not but are predictive of potential outcomes. To avoid losing such predictive feature information, existing methods learn…

用机器学习选择助推对象：学生助学金续申请实验中的因果与预测定向AI 解读

In many settings, interventions may be more effective for some individuals than others, so that targeting interventions may be beneficial. We analyze the value of targeting in the context of a large-scale field experiment with over 53,000 college students, where the goal was to use "nudges" to encourage students to renew their financial-aid applications before a non-binding deadline. We begin with baseline approaches to targeting. First, we target based on a causal forest…

连续协变量下应对正值性违反的综合估计量AI 解读

Studies intended to estimate the effect of a treatment, like randomized trials, may not be sampled from the desired target population. To correct for this discrepancy, estimates can be transported to the target population. Methods for transporting between populations are often premised on a positivity assumption, such that all relevant covariate patterns in one population are also present in the other. However, eligibility criteria, particularly in the case of trials, can…

CaRiNG：非可逆生成过程下的时序因果表征学习AI 解读

Identifying the underlying time-delayed latent causal processes in sequential data is vital for grasping temporal dynamics and making downstream reasoning. While some recent methods can robustly identify these latent causal variables, they rely on strict assumptions about the invertible generation process from latent variables to observed data. However, these assumptions are often hard to satisfy in real-world applications containing information loss. For instance, the…

观察数据中的联邦因果推断AI 解读

Decentralized data sources are prevalent in real-world applications, posing a formidable challenge for causal inference. These sources cannot be consolidated into a single entity owing to privacy constraints. The presence of dissimilar data distributions and missing values within them can potentially introduce bias to the causal estimands. In this article, we propose a framework to estimate causal effects from decentralized data sources. The proposed framework avoid…

流式数据工具变量回归的随机优化算法AI 解读

We develop and analyze algorithms for instrumental variable regression by viewing the problem as a conditional stochastic optimization problem. In the context of least-squares instrumental variable regression, our algorithms neither require matrix inversions nor mini-batches and provides a fully online approach for performing instrumental variable regression with streaming data. When the true model is linear, we derive rates of convergence in expectation, that are of order $\mathcal{O}(\log T/T)$…