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使用实验数据验证观察研究的理论困难AI 解读

Observational data is often readily available in large quantities, but can lead to biased causal effect estimates due to the presence of unobserved confounding. Recent works attempt to remove this bias by supplementing observational data with experimental data, which, when available, is typically on a smaller scale due to the time and cost involved in running a randomised controlled trial. In this work, we prove a theorem that places fundamental limits on this ``best of both…

一般处理分配概率下实验设计的分布差异问题AI 解读

We investigate experimental design for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with both equal and unequal treatment-control assignment probabilities. Our work makes progress on the connection between the distributional discrepancy minimization (DDM) problem introduced by Harshaw et al. (2024) and the design of RCTs. We make two main contributions: First, we prove that approximating the optimal solution of the DDM problem within a certain constant error is NP-hard. Second, we…

半参数有效半监督学习的统一框架AI 解读

We consider statistical inference under a semi-supervised setting where we have access to both a labeled dataset consisting of pairs $\{X_i, Y_i \}_{i=1}^n$ and an unlabeled dataset $\{ X_i \}_{i=n+1}^{n+N}$. We ask the question: under what circumstances, and by how much, can incorporating the unlabeled dataset improve upon inference using the labeled data? To answer this question, we investigate semi-supervised learning through the lens of semiparametric efficiency theory.…

基于变分因果推断的反事实生成建模AI 解读

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and covariates are relatively limited. In this case, to predict one's outcomes under counterfactual treatments, it is crucial to leverage individual information contained in the observed outcome in addition to the covariates. Prior works…

二元 V 形结构中因果效应估计量的协方差AI 解读

Previously [Journal of Causal Inference, 10, 90-105 (2022)], we computed the variance of two estimators of causal effects for a v-structure of binary variables. Here we show that a linear combination of these estimators has lower variance than either. Furthermore, we show that this holds also when the treatment variable is block randomised with a predefined number receiving treatment, with analogous results to when it is sampled randomly.

适用于多种删失机制的生存数据灵活控制函数方法AI 解读

This paper addresses the problem of identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment in the presence of unmeasured confounding and various types of right-censoring. Examples of these censoring mechanisms are administrative censoring, competing risks and dependent censoring (e.g. loss to follow-up). Different parametric transformations are applied to each event time, resulting in a regression model with a more additive structure and error terms that are…

fkbma：以自由节点 B 样条和贝叶斯模型平均识别治疗定制变量的 R 包AI 解读

Precision medicine aims to optimize treatment by identifying patient subgroups most likely to benefit from specific interventions. To support this goal, we introduce fkbma, an R package that implements a Bayesian model averaging approach with free-knot B-splines for identifying tailoring variables. The package employs a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to flexibly model treatment effect heterogeneity while accounting for uncertainty in both variable…

随机临床试验协变量调整中基于影响函数方差的稳健 g 计算得分检验AI 解读

G-computation has become a widely used robust method for estimating unconditional (marginal) treatment effects with covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomized clinical trials. Statistical inference in this context typically relies on the Wald test or Wald interval, which can be easily implemented using a consistent variance estimator. However, existing literature suggests that when sample sizes are small or when parameters of interest are near boundary values,…

用于因果效应估计的组合式模型AI 解读

Many real-world systems can be usefully represented as sets of interacting components. Examples include computational systems, such as query processors and compilers, natural systems, such as cells and ecosystems, and social systems, such as families and organizations. However, current approaches to estimating potential outcomes and causal effects typically treat such systems as single units, represent them with a fixed set of variables, and assume a homogeneous…

未测混杂下生存结局平均处理效应的双重稳健工具变量方法AI 解读

Motivated by conflicting conclusions regarding hydrocortisone's treatment effect on ICU patients with vasopressor-dependent septic shock, we developed a novel instrumental variable (IV) estimator to assess the average treatment effect (ATE) in time-to-event data. In real-world data, IV methods are widely used for estimating causal treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding, but existing approaches for time-to-event outcomes are often constrained by strong…

中介与时变剂量反应曲线的序贯核嵌入AI 解读

We propose simple nonparametric estimators for mediated and time-varying dose response curves based on kernel ridge regression. By embedding Pearl's mediation formula and Robins' g-formula with kernels, we allow treatments, mediators, and covariates to be continuous in general spaces, and also allow for nonlinear treatment-confounder feedback. Our key innovation is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space technique called sequential kernel embedding, which we use to construct…

BudgetIV：多数工具变量无效时因果效应的最优部分识别AI 解读

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding between exposure and outcome. An IV must affect the outcome exclusively through the exposure and be unconfounded with the outcome. We present a framework for relaxing either or both of these strong assumptions with tuneable and interpretable budget constraints. Our algorithm returns a feasible set of causal effects that can be identified exactly given relevant…

从多模态生物医学观测中学习因果表征AI 解读

Prevalent in biomedical applications (e.g., human phenotype research), multimodal datasets can provide valuable insights into the underlying physiological mechanisms. However, current machine learning (ML) models designed to analyze these datasets often lack interpretability and identifiability guarantees, which are essential for biomedical research. Recent advances in causal representation learning have shown promise in identifying interpretable latent causal variables with…

分层获益概率：部分识别与稳健、稳定的推断AI 解读

We define the Probability of Tiered Benefit in scenarios with a binary exposure and an outcome that is either categorical with $K \geq 2$ ordered tiers or continuous partitioned by $K-1$ fixed thresholds into disjoint intervals. Similarly to other pure counterfactual queries, this parameter is not $g$-identifiable without additional assumptions. We demonstrate that strong monotonicity does not suffice for point identification when $K \geq 3$ and provide sharp bounds both…

具有选择性资格的纵向因果推断AI 解读

Dropout poses a significant challenge to causal inference in longitudinal studies with time-varying treatments. However, existing research does not simultaneously address dropout and time-varying treatments. We examine selective eligibility, an important yet overlooked source of non-ignorable dropout in such settings. This problem arises when a unit's prior treatment history influences its eligibility for subsequent treatments, a common scenario in medical and other…

通过双重抽样处理缺失数据的因果分位数处理效应AI 解读

Causal weighted quantile treatment effects (WQTE) are a useful complement to standard causal contrasts that focus on the mean when interest lies at the tails of the counterfactual distribution. To-date, however, methods for estimation and inference regarding causal WQTEs have assumed complete data on all relevant factors. In most practical settings, however, data will be missing or incomplete data, particularly when the data are not collected for research purposes, as is the…

通过虚拟博弈数值逼近极小极大遗憾规则AI 解读

Finding numerical approximations to minimax regret treatment rules is of key interest. To do so when potential outcomes are in {0,1} we discretize the action space of nature and apply a variant of Robinson's (1951) algorithm for iterative solutions for finite two-person zero sum games. Our approach avoids the need to evaluate regret of each treatment rule in each iteration. When potential outcomes are in [0,1] we apply the so-called coarsening approach. We consider a…

用双重差分评估政策效应异质性驱动因素的因果框架AI 解读

Policymakers and researchers often seek to understand how a policy differentially affects a population and the pathways driving this heterogeneity. For example, when studying an excise tax on sweetened beverages, researchers might assess the roles of cross-border shopping, economic competition, and store-level price changes on beverage sales trends. However, traditional policy evaluation tools, like the difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, primarily target average…

未知干预下高斯结构因果模型的刻画与贪心学习AI 解读

We consider the problem of recovering the causal structure underlying observations from different experimental conditions when the targets of the interventions in each experiment are unknown. We assume a linear structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise and consider interventions that perturb their targets while maintaining the causal relationships in the system. Different models may entail the same distributions, offering competing causal explanations for the…

反事实逻辑与因果推断的认识论AI 解读

The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics recognized an epistemology of causal inference based on the Rubin causal model (Rubin 1974), which merits broader attention in philosophy. This model, in fact, presupposes a logical principle of counterfactuals, Conditional Excluded Middle (CEM), the locus of a pivotal debate between Stalnaker (1968) and Lewis (1973) on the semantics of counterfactuals. Proponents of CEM should recognize that this connection points to a new argument for CEM…

高维蛋白基因组数据的多组学生存中介分析框架AI 解读

Survival analysis plays a crucial role in understanding time-to-event (survival) outcomes such as disease progression. Despite recent advancements in causal mediation frameworks for survival analysis, existing methods are typically based on Cox regression and primarily focus on a single exposure or individual omics layers, often overlooking multi-omics interplay. This limitation hinders the full potential of integrated biological insights. In this paper, we propose SMAHP, a…

通过因果正则化提升多元分析的分布外稳健性AI 解读

We propose a regularisation strategy of classical machine learning algorithms rooted in causality that ensures robustness against distribution shifts. Building upon the anchor regression framework, we demonstrate how incorporating a straightforward regularisation term into the loss function of classical multivariate analysis algorithms, such as (orthonormalized) partial least squares, reduced-rank regression, and multiple linear regression, enables out-of-distribution…

未来电力系统的发电与平衡容量：贝叶斯网络情景分析AI 解读

This paper examines the evolution of the Finnish electric energy system up to 2035, focusing on the likelihood of different development paths. The primary contribution of this paper is the development of an extensive Bayesian Network, designed to model and analyse the evolution of power generation capacity mix, assess the likelihood of different grid management scenarios, and understand the causal relationships underlying these scenarios. A target optimisation was carried…

存在试验期间事件的外部对照试验：双重稳健综合敏感性分析AI 解读

Externally controlled trials are crucial in clinical development when randomized controlled trials are unethical or impractical. These trials consist of a full treatment arm with the experimental treatment and a full external control arm. However, they present significant challenges in learning the treatment effect due to the lack of randomization and a parallel control group. Besides baseline incomparability, outcome mean non-exchangeability, caused by differences in…