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结合参数与非参数模型估计观察性研究中的处理效应AI 解读

Performing causal inference in observational studies requires we assume confounding variables are correctly adjusted for. G-computation methods are often used in these scenarios, with several recent proposals using Bayesian versions of g-computation. In settings with few confounders, standard models can be employed, however as the number of confounders increase these models become less feasible as there are fewer observations available for each unique combination of…

重新审视贝叶斯分析中的识别概念AI 解读

This paper studies the role played by identification in the Bayesian analysis of statistical and econometric models. First, for unidentified models we demonstrate that there are situations where the introduction of a non-degenerate prior distribution can make a parameter that is nonidentified in frequentist theory identified in Bayesian theory. In other situations, it is preferable to work with the unidentified model and construct a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms…

时间序列中高效且一致的数据驱动模型选择AI 解读

This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. We first study the asymptotic behavior of the ideal penalty that minimizes the risk induced by a quasi-likelihood estimation among a finite family of models containing the true model. Then, we provide general conditions on the penalty term for…

利用不可观测成分分位数回归建模通胀尾部风险AI 解读

This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and develop an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm. Regularization of the high-dimensional parameter space is achieved via flexible dynamic shrinkage priors. A simple version of TVP-QR based on an unobserved component model is applied to…

图结构辅助的分组网络自回归模型：贝叶斯非参数方法AI 解读

Vector autoregression model is ubiquitous in classical time series data analysis. With the rapid advance of social network sites, time series data over latent graph is becoming increasingly popular. In this paper, we develop a novel Bayesian grouped network autoregression model to simultaneously estimate group information (number of groups and group configurations) and group-wise parameters. Specifically, a graphically assisted Chinese restaurant process is incorporated…

用多国非参数分位数因子模型研究增长风险AI 解读

We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Cross-sectional information at the pth quantile is captured through a conditionally heteroscedastic latent factor. The non-parametric feature of our model enhances flexibility, while the panel feature, by exploiting…

因果推断中的数据整合AI 解读

Integrating data from multiple heterogeneous sources has become increasingly popular to achieve a large sample size and diverse study population. This paper reviews development in causal inference methods that combines multiple datasets collected by potentially different designs from potentially heterogeneous populations. We summarize recent advances on combining randomized clinical trial with external information from observational studies or historical controls, combining…

医学中的贝叶斯模型平均元分析AI 解读

We outline a Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis for standardized mean differences in order to quantify evidence for both treatment effectiveness $δ$ and across-study heterogeneity $τ$. We construct four competing models by orthogonally combining two present-absent assumptions, one for the treatment effect and one for across-study heterogeneity. To inform the choice of prior distributions for the model parameters, we used 50% of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews…

用于协变量依赖谱分析的自适应贝叶斯树和模型AI 解读

This article introduces a flexible and adaptive nonparametric method for estimating the association between multiple covariates and power spectra of multiple time series. The proposed approach uses a Bayesian sum of trees model to capture complex dependencies and interactions between covariates and the power spectrum, which are often observed in studies of biomedical time series. Local power spectra corresponding to terminal nodes within trees are estimated nonparametrically…

隐式 Copula 概览AI 解读

Implicit copulas are the most common copula choice for modeling dependence in high dimensions. This broad class of copulas is introduced and surveyed, including elliptical copulas, skew $t$ copulas, factor copulas, time series copulas and regression copulas. The common auxiliary representation of implicit copulas is outlined, and how this makes them both scalable and tractable for statistical modeling. Issues such as parameter identification, extended likelihoods for…

非参数经验贝叶斯分析的置信区间AI 解读

In an empirical Bayes analysis, we use data from repeated sampling to imitate inferences made by an oracle Bayesian with extensive knowledge of the data-generating distribution. Existing results provide a comprehensive characterization of when and why empirical Bayes point estimates accurately recover oracle Bayes behavior. In this paper, we develop flexible and practical confidence intervals that provide asymptotic frequentist coverage of empirical Bayes estimands, such as…

Student-t 分布自由度参数的贝叶斯估计：一种有益的重参数化AI 解读

In this paper, conditional data augmentation (DA) is investigated for the degrees of freedom parameter $ν$ of a Student-$t$ distribution. Based on a restricted version of the expected augmented Fisher information, it is conjectured that the ancillarity DA is progressively more efficient for MCMC estimation than the sufficiency DA as $ν$ increases; with the break even point lying at as low as $ν\approx4$. The claim is examined further and generalized through a large…

利用 E-value 对缺失数据开展贝叶斯敏感性分析AI 解读

Sensitivity Analysis is a framework to assess how conclusions drawn from missing outcome data may be vulnerable to departures from untestable underlying assumptions. We extend the E-value, a popular metric for quantifying robustness of causal conclusions, to the setting of missing outcomes. With motivating examples from partially-observed Facebook conversion events, we present methodology for conducting Sensitivity Analysis at scale with three contributions. First, we…

项目反应理论：教育与心理测量的统计框架AI 解读

Item response theory (IRT) has become one of the most popular statistical models for psychometrics, a field of study concerned with the theory and techniques of psychological measurement. The IRT models are latent factor models tailored to the analysis, interpretation, and prediction of individuals' behaviors in answering a set of measurement items that typically involve categorical response data. Many important questions of measurement are directly or indirectly answered…

降维与状态空间系统：用频率学派及贝叶斯 VAR 预测美国国债收益率AI 解读

Using a state-space system, I forecasted the US Treasury yields by employing frequentist and Bayesian methods after first decomposing the yields of varying maturities into its unobserved term structure factors. Then, I exploited the structure of the state-space model to forecast the Treasury yields and compared the forecast performance of each model using mean squared forecast error. Among the frequentist methods, I applied the two-step Diebold-Li, two-step principal…

Ornstein–Uhlenbeck 过程的推广：理论、模拟与参数估计AI 解读

In this work, we study the class of stochastic process that generalizes the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, hereafter called by \emph{Generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Type Process} and denoted by GOU type process. We consider them driven by the class of noise processes such as Brownian motion, symmetric $α$-stable Lévy process, a Lévy process, and even a Poisson process. We give necessary and sufficient conditions under the memory kernel function for the time-stationary and the…

用于多重变化点识别的多分割模型AI 解读

Among the main goals in multiple change point problems are the estimation of the number and positions of the change points, as well as the regime structure in the clusters induced by those changes. The product partition model (PPM) is a widely used approach for the detection of multiple change points. The traditional PPM assumes that change points split the set of time points in random clusters that define a partition of the time axis. It is then typically assumed that…

逻辑回归与贝叶斯分类器的理论比较AI 解读

This study aims to show the fundamental difference between logistic regression and Bayesian classifiers in the case of exponential and unexponential families of distributions, yielding the following findings. First, the logistic regression is a less general representation of a Bayesian classifier. Second, one should suppose distributions of classes for the correct specification of logistic regression equations. Third, in specific cases, there is no difference between…

对《用于因果推断的贝叶斯回归树模型》的讨论AI 解读

Hahn et al. (2020) offers an extensive study to explicate and evaluate the performance of the BCF model in different settings and provides a detailed discussion about its utility in causal inference. It is a welcomed addition to the causal machine learning literature. I will emphasize the contribution of the BCF model to the field of causal inference through discussions on two topics: 1) the difference between the PS in the BCF model and the Bayesian PS in a Bayesian…

复杂时间序列系统的高维贝叶斯优化算法AI 解读

At present, high-dimensional global optimization problems with time-series models have received much attention from engineering fields. Since it was proposed, Bayesian optimization has quickly become a popular and promising approach for solving global optimization problems. However, the standard Bayesian optimization algorithm is insufficient to solving the global optimal solution when the model is high-dimensional. Hence, this paper presents a novel high dimensional…

利用滑动时间窗口贝叶斯分析诊断模型结构误差AI 解读

Deterministic hydrological models with uncertain, but inferred-to-be-time-invariant parameters typically show time-dependent model structural errors. Such errors can occur if a hydrological process is active in certain time periods in nature, but is not resolved by the model. Such missing processes could become visible during calibration as time-dependent best-fit values of model parameters. We propose a formal time-windowed Bayesian analysis to diagnose this type of model…

贝叶斯分位数回归中收缩与变量选择的解耦AI 解读

This paper extends the idea of decoupling shrinkage and sparsity for continuous priors to Bayesian Quantile Regression (BQR). The procedure follows two steps: In the first step, we shrink the quantile regression posterior through state of the art continuous priors and in the second step, we sparsify the posterior through an efficient variant of the adaptive lasso, the signal adaptive variable selection (SAVS) algorithm. We propose a new variant of the SAVS which automates…

共轭贝叶斯向量自回归中的子空间收缩AI 解读

Macroeconomists using large datasets often face the choice of working with either a large Vector Autoregression (VAR) or a factor model. In this paper, we develop methods for combining the two using a subspace shrinkage prior. Subspace priors shrink towards a class of functions rather than directly forcing the parameters of a model towards some pre-specified location. We develop a conjugate VAR prior which shrinks towards the subspace which is defined by a factor model. Our…

利用经验贝叶斯学习贝叶斯元先验AI 解读

Adding domain knowledge to a learning system is known to improve results. In multi-parameter Bayesian frameworks, such knowledge is incorporated as a prior. On the other hand, various model parameters can have different learning rates in real-world problems, especially with skewed data. Two often-faced challenges in Operation Management and Management Science applications are the absence of informative priors, and the inability to control parameter learning rates. In this…