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通过矩阵补全进行回溯因果推断：欧洲一体化与跨境就业AI 解读

We propose a method of retrospective counterfactual imputation in panel data settings with later-treated and always-treated units, but no never-treated units. We use the observed outcomes to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the later-treated using a matrix completion estimator. We propose a novel propensity-score and elapsed-time weighting of the estimator's objective function to correct for differences in the observed covariate and unobserved fixed effects…

情境多臂老虎机实验后的统计推断AI 解读

Contextual bandit algorithms are increasingly replacing non-adaptive A/B tests in e-commerce, healthcare, and policymaking because they can both improve outcomes for study participants and increase the chance of identifying good or even best policies. To support credible inference on novel interventions at the end of the study, nonetheless, we still want to construct valid confidence intervals on average treatment effects, subgroup effects, or value of new policies. The…

自适应多来源因果推断AI 解读

Data scarcity is a tremendous challenge in causal effect estimation. In this paper, we propose to exploit additional data sources to facilitate estimating causal effects in the target population. Specifically, we leverage additional source datasets which share similar causal mechanisms with the target observations to help infer causal effects of the target population. We propose three levels of knowledge transfer, through modelling the outcomes, treatments, and confounders.…

基于联邦观察数据的因果效应估计AI 解读

Many modern applications collect data that comes in federated spirit, with data kept locally and undisclosed. Till date, most insight into the causal inference requires data to be stored in a central repository. We present a novel framework for causal inference with federated data sources. We assess and integrate local causal effects from different private data sources without centralizing them. Then, the treatment effects on subjects from observational data using a…

整群随机实验中 Delta 方法与聚类稳健方差估计的等价性AI 解读

It often happens that the same problem presents itself to different communities and the solutions proposed or adopted by those communities are different. We take the case of the variance estimation of the population average treatment effect in cluster-randomized experiments. The econometrics literature promotes the cluster-robust variance estimator (Athey and Imbens, 2017), which can be dated back to the study of linear regression with clustered residuals (Liang and Zeger,…

评估新冠相关政策对疫情动态的因果影响：美国案例AI 解读

To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, decision-makers and public authorities have announced various non-pharmaceutical policies. Analyzing the causal impact of these policies in reducing the spread of COVID-19 is important for future policy-making. The main challenge here is the existence of unobserved confounders (e.g., vigilance of residents). Besides, as the confounders may be time-varying during COVID-19 (e.g., vigilance of residents changes in the course of the…

随机临床试验亚组分析中的协变量调整：倾向得分方法AI 解读

Background: Subgroup analyses are frequently conducted in randomized clinical trials to assess evidence of heterogeneous treatment effect across patient subpopulations. Although randomization balances covariates within subgroups in expectation, chance imbalance may be amplified in small subgroups and harm the precision. Covariate adjustment in overall analysis of RCT is often conducted, via either ANCOVA or propensity score weighting, but for subgroup analysis has been…

回归变量变异有限时随机系数模型识别的非参数分布类AI 解读

This paper studies point identification of the distribution of the coefficients in some random coefficients models with exogenous regressors when their support is a proper subset, possibly discrete but countable. We exhibit trade-offs between restrictions on the distribution of the random coefficients and the support of the regressors. We consider linear models including those with nonlinear transforms of a baseline regressor, with an infinite number of regressors and…

高维数据下协变量特定处理效应的模型辅助推断AI 解读

Covariate-specific treatment effects (CSTEs) represent heterogeneous treatment effects across subpopulations defined by certain selected covariates. In this article, we consider marginal structural models where CSTEs are linearly represented using a set of basis functions of the selected covariates. We develop a new approach in high-dimensional settings to obtain not only doubly robust point estimators of CSTEs, but also model-assisted confidence intervals, which are valid…

贝叶斯不确定性导向试验设计运行特征的近似AI 解读

Bayesian response adaptive clinical trials are currently evaluating experimental therapies for several diseases. Adaptive decisions, such as pre-planned variations of the randomization probabilities, attempt to accelerate the development of new treatments. The design of response adaptive trials, in most cases, requires time consuming simulation studies to describe operating characteristics, such as type I/II error rates, across plausible scenarios. We investigate large…

中断时间序列设计中的模型选择后推断：加州攻击性武器禁令评估AI 解读

There have been many claims in the media and a bit of respectable research about the causes of variation in firearm sales. The challenges for causal inference can be quite daunting. This paper reports an analysis of daily handgun sales in California from 1996 through 2018 using an interrupted time series design and analysis. The design was introduced to social scientists in 1963 by Campbell and Stanley, analysis methods were proposed by Box and Tiao in 1975, and more recent…

利用网络数据识别和估计部分线性回归：推断与网络同伴效应应用AI 解读

This paper provides additional results relevant to the setting, model, and estimators of Auerbach (2019a). Section 1 contains results about the large sample properties of the estimators from Section 2 of Auerbach (2019a). Section 2 considers some extensions to the model. Section 3 provides an application to estimating network peer effects. Section 4 shows the results from some simulations.

反事实与合成控制的精确稳健共形推断AI 解读

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to exploit insights from conformal prediction and structural breaks testing to develop permutation inference procedures that accommodate modern high-dimensional estimators, are valid under weak and easy-to-verify conditions, and are provably…

两样本无条件分位数效应AI 解读

This paper proposes a new framework to evaluate unconditional quantile effects (UQE) in a data combination model. The UQE measures the effect of a marginal counterfactual change in the unconditional distribution of a covariate on quantiles of the unconditional distribution of a target outcome. Under rank similarity and conditional independence assumptions, we provide a set of identification results for UQEs when the target covariate is continuously distributed and when it is…

线性动态面板矩条件分析中的识别稳健推断AI 解读

We use identification robust tests to show that difference, level and non-linear moment conditions, as proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991), Arellano and Bover (1995), Blundell and Bond (1998) and Ahn and Schmidt (1995) for the linear dynamic panel data model, do not separately identify the autoregressive parameter when its true value is close to one and the variance of the initial observations is large. We prove that combinations of these moment conditions, however, do so…

分布无关的条件独立检验及其因果发现应用AI 解读

This paper is concerned with test of the conditional independence. We first establish an equivalence between the conditional independence and the mutual independence. Based on the equivalence, we propose an index to measure the conditional dependence by quantifying the mutual dependence among the transformed variables. The proposed index has several appealing properties. (a) It is distribution free since the limiting null distribution of the proposed index does not depend on…

配对随机实验中分位数处理效应的自助法推断AI 解读

This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). Standard multiplier bootstrap inference fails to capture the negative dependence of observations within each pair and is therefore conservative. Analytical inference involves estimating multiple functional quantities that require several tuning parameters. Instead, this paper proposes two bootstrap methods that can consistently…

用于识别非线性模型因果效应的积分方程AI 解读

When the causal relationship between X and Y is specified by a structural equation, the causal effect of X on Y is the expected rate of change of Y with respect to changes in X, when all other variables are kept fixed. This causal effect is not identifiable from the distribution of (X,Y). We give conditions under which this causal effect is identified as the solution of an integral equation based on the distributions of (X,Z) and (Y,Z), where Z is an instrumental variable.

群组人群中传染病干预效应的因果识别AI 解读

Causal identification of treatment effects for infectious disease outcomes in interconnected populations is challenging because infection outcomes may be transmissible to others, and treatment given to one individual may affect others' outcomes. Contagion, or transmissibility of outcomes, complicates standard conceptions of treatment interference in which an intervention delivered to one individual can affect outcomes of others. Several statistical frameworks have been…

利用电子健康记录稳健估计异质性处理效应AI 解读

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an essential component of precision medicine. Model and algorithm-based methods have been developed within the causal inference framework to achieve valid estimation and inference. Existing methods such as the A-learner, R-learner, modified covariates method (with and without efficiency augmentation), inverse propensity score weighting, and augmented inverse propensity score weighting have been proposed mostly under the square…

SDRcausal：基于充分降维的因果推断 R 软件包AI 解读

SDRcausal is a package that implements sufficient dimension reduction methods for causal inference as proposed in Ghosh, Ma, and de Luna (2021). The package implements (augmented) inverse probability weighting and outcome regression (imputation) estimators of an average treatment effect (ATE) parameter. Nuisance models, both treatment assignment probability given the covariates (propensity score) and outcome regression models, are fitted by using semiparametric locally…

不确定的近邻：用于因果推断的贝叶斯倾向得分匹配AI 解读

We compare the performance of standard nearest-neighbor propensity score matching with that of an analogous Bayesian propensity score matching procedure. We show that the Bayesian approach makes better use of available information, as it makes less arbitrary decisions about which observations to drop and which ones to keep in the matched sample. We conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of standard and Bayesian nearest-neighbor matching when matching is done…

存在未观测混杂时利用差值分数估计兄弟姐妹溢出效应AI 解读

A growing area of research in epidemiology is the identification of health-related sibling spillover effects, or the effect of one individual's exposure on their sibling's outcome. The health and health care of family members may be inextricably confounded by unobserved factors, rendering identification of spillover effects within families particularly challenging. We demonstrate a gain-score regression method for identifying exposure-to-outcome spillover effects within…

病例对照研究中的因果效应识别AI 解读

Case-control designs are an important tool in contrasting the effects of well-defined treatments. In this paper, we reconsider classical concepts, assumptions and principles and explore when the results of case-control studies can be endowed a causal interpretation. Our focus is on identification of target causal quantities, or estimands. We cover various estimands relating to intention-to-treat or per-protocol effects for popular sampling schemes (case-base, survivor, and…