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因果推断稀疏方法的信息准则AI 解读

For propensity score analysis and sparse estimation, we develop an information criterion for determining the regularization parameters needed in variable selection. First, for Gaussian distribution-based causal inference models, we extend Stein's unbiased risk estimation theory, which leads to a generalized Cp criterion that has almost no weakness in conventional sparse estimation, and derive an inverse-probability-weighted sparse estimation version of the criterion without…

Intact-VAE：未观测混杂下的处理效应估计AI 解读

NOTE: This preprint has a flawed theoretical formulation. Please avoid it and refer to the ICLR22 publication https://openreview.net/forum?id=q7n2RngwOM. Also, arXiv:2109.15062 contains some new ideas on unobserved Confounding. As an important problem of causal inference, we discuss the identification and estimation of treatment effects under unobserved confounding. Representing the confounder as a latent variable, we propose Intact-VAE, a new variant of variational…

利用条件独立性预先指定结构，优化数据收集与研究透明度AI 解读

Data collection and research methodology represents a critical part of the research pipeline. On the one hand, it is important that we collect data in a way that maximises the validity of what we are measuring, which may involve the use of long scales with many items. On the other hand, collecting a large number of items across multiple scales results in participant fatigue, and expensive and time consuming data collection. It is therefore important that we use the available…

含无效工具变量的半参数有效G估计AI 解读

The instrumental variable method is widely used in the health and social sciences for identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding. In order to improve efficiency, multiple instruments are routinely used, leading to concerns about bias due to possible violation of the instrumental variable assumptions. To address this concern, we introduce a new class of g-estimators that are guaranteed to remain consistent and…

不依从随机实验中二元结局的模型辅助依从者平均处理效应估计AI 解读

In randomized experiments, the actual treatments received by some experimental units may differ from their treatment assignments. This non-compliance issue often occurs in clinical trials, social experiments, and the applications of randomized experiments in many other fields. Under certain assumptions, the average treatment effect for the compliers is identifiable and equal to the ratio of the intention-to-treat effects of the potential outcomes to that of the potential…

因果推断中平均处理效应的抗异常值估计AI 解读

The inverse probability (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) estimators are often used to estimate the average causal effect (ATE), but are vulnerable to outliers. The IPW/DR median can be used for outlier-resistant estimation of the ATE, but the outlier resistance of the median is limited and it is not resistant enough for heavy contamination. We propose extensions of the IPW/DR estimators with density power weighting, which can eliminate the influence of outliers almost…

非线性固定效应面板模型的间接推断AI 解读

Fixed effect estimators of nonlinear panel data models suffer from the incidental parameter problem. This leads to two undesirable consequences in applied research: (1) point estimates are subject to large biases, and (2) confidence intervals have incorrect coverages. This paper proposes a simulation-based method for bias reduction. The method simulates data using the model with estimated individual effects, and finds values of parameters by equating fixed effect estimates…

面向收缩估计的实验设计AI 解读

We consider how increasingly available observational data can be used to improve the design of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We seek to design a prospective RCT, with the intent of using an Empirical Bayes estimator to shrink the causal estimates from our trial toward causal estimates obtained from an observational study. We ask: how might we design the experiment to better complement the observational study in this setting? We propose using an estimator that shrinks…

非嵌套设计中将试验证据推广至目标人群：艾滋病临床试验应用AI 解读

Comparative effectiveness evidence from randomized trials may not be directly generalizable to a target population of substantive interest when, as in most cases, trial participants are not randomly sampled from the target population. Motivated by the need to generalize evidence from two trials conducted in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG), we consider weighting, regression and doubly robust estimators to estimate the causal effects of HIV interventions in a specified…

马尔可夫范畴、因果理论与 do 演算AI 解读

We give a category-theoretic treatment of causal models that formalizes the syntax for causal reasoning over a directed acyclic graph (DAG) by associating a free Markov category with the DAG in a canonical way. This framework enables us to define and study important concepts in causal reasoning from an abstract and "purely causal" point of view, such as causal independence/separation, causal conditionals, and decomposition of intervention effects. Our results regarding these…

马尔可夫链选择模型下价格与产品组合联合决策的收益管理AI 解读

Finding the optimal product prices and product assortment are two fundamental problems in revenue management. Usually, a seller needs to jointly determine the prices and assortment while managing a network of resources with limited capacity. However, there is not yet a tractable method to efficiently solve such a problem. Existing papers studying static joint optimization of price and assortment cannot incorporate resource constraints. Then we study the revenue management…

分布式锚回归AI 解读

Prediction models often fail if train and test data do not stem from the same distribution. Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization to unseen, perturbed test data is a desirable but difficult-to-achieve property for prediction models and in general requires strong assumptions on the data generating process (DGP). In a causally inspired perspective on OOD generalization, the test data arise from a specific class of interventions on exogenous random variables of the DGP,…

存在时变混杂因素时的已处理者平均处理效应去偏估计AI 解读

With the increased availability of large health databases comes the opportunity of evaluating treatment effect on new data sources.Through these databases time-dependent outcomes can be analysed as events that can be measured using counting processes. Estimating average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) requires modelling of time-varying covariate and time-dependent treatment and outcome. Gran et al. proposed an easy-to-implement method based on additive intensity…

条件因子模型的稳健估计AI 解读

This paper develops estimation and inference methods for conditional quantile factor models. We first introduce a simple sieve estimation, and establish asymptotic properties of the estimators under large $N$. We then provide a bootstrap procedure for estimating the distributions of the estimators. We also provide two consistent estimators for the number of factors. The methods allow us not only to estimate conditional factor structures of distributions of asset returns…

结构筛：以深度网络近似经济优化模型AI 解读

This paper explores the use of deep neural networks for semiparametric estimation of economic models of maximizing behavior in production or discrete choice. We argue that certain deep networks are particularly well suited as a nonparametric sieve to approximate regression functions that result from nonlinear latent variable models of continuous or discrete optimization. Multi-stage models of this type will typically generate rich interaction effects between regressors…

新冠疫情背景下的微公交采纳：公交与汽车通勤者的选择实验证据AI 解读

On-demand mobility platforms play an increasingly important role in urban mobility systems. Impacts are still debated, as these platforms supply personalized and optimized services, while also contributing to existing sustainability challenges. Recently, microtransit services have emerged, promising to combine advantages of pooled on-demand rides with more sustainable fixed-route public transit services. Understanding traveler behavior becomes a primary focus to analyze…

分布式数据共享管理下的协作因果推断AI 解读

Data sharing barriers are paramount challenges arising from multicenter clinical trials where multiple data sources are stored in a distributed fashion at different local study sites. Merging such data sources into a common data storage for a centralized statistical analysis requires a data use agreement, which is often time-consuming. Data merging may become more burdensome when causal inference is of primary interest because propensity score modeling involves combining…

可分离匹配模型的估计AI 解读

In this paper we propose two simple methods to estimate models of matching with transferable and separable utility introduced in Galichon and Salanié (2022). The first method is a minimum distance estimator that relies on the generalized entropy of matching. The second relies on a reformulation of the more special but popular Choo and Siow (2006) model; it uses generalized linear models (GLMs) with two-way fixed effects.

SurvCaus：生存因果推断中的表征平衡AI 解读

Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) estimation methods have risen in popularity in the last years. Most of the time, individual effects are better presented as Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). Recently, representation balancing techniques have gained considerable momentum in causal inference from observational data, still limited to continuous (and binary) outcomes. However, in numerous pathologies, the outcome of interest is a (possibly censored) survival time.…

用于政策评估的双重差分法AI 解读

Difference-in-differences is one of the most used identification strategies in empirical work in economics. This chapter reviews a number of important, recent developments related to difference-in-differences. First, this chapter reviews recent work pointing out limitations of two way fixed effects regressions (these are panel data regressions that have been the dominant approach to implementing difference-in-differences identification strategies) that arise in empirically…

用于因果发现的最优传输方法AI 解读

To determine causal relationships between two variables, approaches based on Functional Causal Models (FCMs) have been proposed by properly restricting model classes; however, the performance is sensitive to the model assumptions, which makes it difficult to use. In this paper, we provide a novel dynamical-system view of FCMs and propose a new framework for identifying causal direction in the bivariate case. We first show the connection between FCMs and optimal transport,…

时变中介、处理与混杂下的高效灵活因果中介分析AI 解读

Interventional effects have been proposed as a solution to the unidentifiability of natural (in)direct effects under mediator-outcome confounders affected by the exposure. Such confounders are an intrinsic characteristic of studies with time-varying exposures and mediators, yet the generalization of the interventional effect framework to the time-varying case has received little attention in the literature. We present an identification result for interventional effects in a…

将整群随机试验的因果推断推广至目标总体AI 解读

We describe methods that extend (generalize or transport) causal inferences from cluster randomized trials to a target population of clusters, under a general nonparametric model that allows for arbitrary within-cluster dependence. We propose doubly robust estimators of potential outcome means in the target population that exploit individual-level data on covariates and outcomes to improve efficiency and are appropriate for use with machine learning methods. We illustrate…

后验预测倾向得分与 p 值AI 解读

\citet{Rosenbaum83ps} introduced the notion of the propensity score and discussed its central role in causal inference with observational studies. Their paper, however, caused a fundamental incoherence with an early paper by \citet{Rubin78}, which showed that the propensity score does not play any role in the Bayesian analysis of unconfounded observational studies if the priors on the propensity score and outcome models are independent. Despite the serious efforts made in…