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借助多址信道建立不变因果预测的错误概率界AI 解读

We consider the problem of lower bounding the error probability under the invariant causal prediction (ICP) framework. To this end, we examine and draw connections between ICP and the zero-rate Gaussian multiple access channel by first proposing a variant of the original invariant prediction assumption, and then considering a special case of the Gaussian multiple access channel where a codebook is shared between an unknown number of senders. This connection allows us to…

利用替代指标的合成控制近端因果推断AI 解读

The synthetic control method (SCM) has become a popular tool for estimating causal effects in policy evaluation, where a single treated unit is observed, and a heterogeneous set of untreated units with pre- and post-policy change data are also observed. However, the synthetic control method faces challenges in accurately predicting post-intervention potential outcome had, contrary to fact, the treatment been withheld, when the pre-intervention period is short or the…

流行病学因果推断中的通用双重差分AI 解读

Difference-in-differences is undoubtedly one of the most widely used methods for evaluating the causal effect of an intervention in observational (i.e., nonrandomized) settings. The approach is typically used when pre- and post-exposure outcome measurements are available, and one can reasonably assume that the association of the unobserved confounder with the outcome has the same absolute magnitude in the two exposure arms, and is constant over time; a so-called parallel…

用于因果效应识别的实验设计AI 解读

Pearl's do calculus is a complete axiomatic approach to learn the identifiable causal effects from observational data. When such an effect is not identifiable, it is necessary to perform a collection of often costly interventions in the system to learn the causal effect. In this work, we consider the problem of designing the collection of interventions with the minimum cost to identify the desired effect. First, we prove that this problem is NP-hard, and subsequently propose…

长期处理效应的半参数估计AI 解读

Long-term outcomes of experimental evaluations are necessarily observed after long delays. We develop semiparametric methods for combining the short-term outcomes of experiments with observational measurements of short-term and long-term outcomes, in order to estimate long-term treatment effects. We characterize semiparametric efficiency bounds for various instances of this problem. These calculations facilitate the construction of several estimators. We analyze the…

线性模型因果发现中的部分同方差性AI 解读

Recursive linear structural equation models and the associated directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) play an important role in causal discovery. The classic identifiability result for this class of models states that when only observational data is available, each DAG can be identified only up to a Markov equivalence class. In contrast, recent work has shown that the DAG can be uniquely identified if the errors in the model are homoscedastic, i.e., all have the same variance. This…

利用实验分阶段推出建模干扰效应AI 解读

Experiments on online marketplaces and social networks suffer from interference, where the outcome of a unit is impacted by the treatment status of other units. We propose a framework for modeling interference using a ubiquitous deployment mechanism for experiments, staggered roll-out designs, which slowly increase the fraction of units exposed to the treatment to mitigate any unanticipated adverse side effects. Our main idea is to leverage the temporal variations in…

不依赖评分等价性的基于排序的结构学习AI 解读

We propose an empirical Bayes formulation of the structure learning problem, where the prior specification assumes that all node variables have the same error variance, an assumption known to ensure the identifiability of the underlying causal directed acyclic graph (DAG). To facilitate efficient posterior computation, we approximate the posterior probability of each ordering by that of a best DAG model, which naturally leads to an order-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

因果模型中最优干预设计的主动学习AI 解读

Sequential experimental design to discover interventions that achieve a desired outcome is a key problem in various domains including science, engineering and public policy. When the space of possible interventions is large, making an exhaustive search infeasible, experimental design strategies are needed. In this context, encoding the causal relationships between the variables, and thus the effect of interventions on the system, is critical for identifying desirable…

计算机视觉增强的离散选择模型：居住区位选择应用AI 解读

Visual imagery is indispensable to many multi-attribute decision situations. Examples of such decision situations in travel behaviour research include residential location choices, vehicle choices, tourist destination choices, and various safety-related choices. However, current discrete choice models cannot handle image data and thus cannot incorporate information embedded in images into their representations of choice behaviour. This gap between discrete choice models'…

有限时间序列下基于条件独立检验的层级拓扑排序AI 解读

Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to identify causal relations underlying observational data is crucial but also poses significant challenges. Recently, topology-based methods have emerged as a two-step approach to discovering DAGs by first learning the topological ordering of variables and then eliminating redundant edges, while ensuring that the graph remains acyclic. However, one limitation is that these methods would generate numerous spurious edges that require…

CUTS+：不规则时间序列中的高维因果发现AI 解读

Causal discovery in time-series is a fundamental problem in the machine learning community, enabling causal reasoning and decision-making in complex scenarios. Recently, researchers successfully discover causality by combining neural networks with Granger causality, but their performances degrade largely when encountering high-dimensional data because of the highly redundant network design and huge causal graphs. Moreover, the missing entries in the observations further…

医生处方偏好工具变量方法的评估：以二型糖尿病治疗为例AI 解读

Instrumental Variables provide a way of addressing bias due to unmeasured confounding when estimating treatment effects using observational data. As instrument prescription preference of individual healthcare providers has been proposed. Because prescription preference is hard to measure and often unobserved, a surrogate measure constructed from available data is often required for the analysis. Different construction methods for this surrogate measure are possible, such as…

结合机器学习、混合 Logit 与非线性规划优化 B2B 产品报价AI 解读

In B2B markets, value-based pricing and selling has become an important alternative to discounting. This study outlines a modeling method that uses customer data (product offers made to each current or potential customer, features, discounts, and customer purchase decisions) to estimate a mixed logit choice model. The model is estimated via hierarchical Bayes and machine learning, delivering customer-level parameter estimates. Customer-level estimates are input into a…

因果图中的聚类与结构稳健性AI 解读

Graphs are commonly used to represent and visualize causal relations. For a small number of variables, this approach provides a succinct and clear view of the scenario at hand. As the number of variables under study increases, the graphical approach may become impractical, and the clarity of the representation is lost. Clustering of variables is a natural way to reduce the size of the causal diagram, but it may erroneously change the essential properties of the causal…

多个相关中介变量下的路径特定因果分解分析AI 解读

A causal decomposition analysis allows researchers to determine whether the difference in a health outcome between two groups can be attributed to a difference in each group's distribution of one or more modifiable mediator variables. With this knowledge, researchers and policymakers can focus on designing interventions that target these mediator variables. Existing methods for causal decomposition analysis either focus on one mediator variable or assume that each mediator…

网络依赖与非平稳性下的极限理论AI 解读

These lecture notes represent supplementary material for a short course on time series econometrics and network econometrics. We give emphasis on limit theory for time series regression models as well as the use of the local-to-unity parametrization when modeling time series nonstationarity. Moreover, we present various non-asymptotic theory results for moderate deviation principles when considering the eigenvalues of covariance matrices as well as asymptotics for unit root…

有限因变量的双重差分与比率之比AI 解读

Difference in differences (DD) is widely used to find policy/treatment effects with observational data, but applying DD to limited dependent variables (LDV's) Y has been problematic. This paper addresses how to apply DD and related approaches (such as "ratio in ratios" or "ratio in odds ratios") to binary, count, fractional, multinomial or zero-censored Y under the unifying framework of `generalized linear models with link functions'. We evaluate DD and the related…

分位数回归结局自适应 lasso：因果分位数处理效应的变量选择AI 解读

Quantile treatment effects (QTEs) can characterize the potentially heterogeneous causal effect of a treatment on different points of the entire outcome distribution. Propensity score (PS) methods are commonly employed for estimating QTEs in non-randomized studies. Empirical and theoretical studies have shown that insufficient and unnecessary adjustment for covariates in PS models can lead to bias and efficiency loss in estimating treatment effects. Striking a balance between…

集群生存数据的新方法：处理效应异质性估计与变量选择AI 解读

We recently developed a new method riAFT-BART to draw causal inferences about population treatment effect on patient survival from clustered and censored survival data while accounting for the multilevel data structure. The practical utility of this method goes beyond the estimation of population average treatment effect. In this work, we exposit how riAFT-BART can be used to solve two important statistical questions with clustered survival data: estimating the treatment…

异质节点网络向量自回归模型的联合估计与分组识别AI 解读

Individuals or companies in a large social or financial network often display rather heterogeneous behaviors for various reasons. In this work, we propose a network vector autoregressive model with a latent group structure to model heterogeneous dynamic patterns observed from network nodes, for which group-wise network effects and timeinvariant fixed-effects can be naturally incorporated. In our framework, the model parameters and network node memberships can be…

可观测处理异质性下用于优效决策的贝叶斯多层多元逻辑回归AI 解读

In medical, social, and behavioral research we often encounter datasets with a multilevel structure and multiple correlated dependent variables. These data are frequently collected from a study population that distinguishes several subpopulations with different (i.e., heterogeneous) effects of an intervention. Despite the frequent occurrence of such data, methods to analyze them are less common and researchers often resort to either ignoring the multilevel and/or…

预测者视角下评述 Pearl《因果性》第二版AI 解读

With the big popularity and success of Judea Pearl's original causality book, this review covers the main topics updated in the second edition in 2009 and illustrates an easy-to-follow causal inference strategy in a forecast scenario. It further discusses some potential benefits and challenges for causal inference with time series forecasting when modeling the counterfactuals, estimating the uncertainty and incorporating prior knowledge to estimate causal effects in…

TSLiNGAM：重尾数据下的 DirectLiNGAMAI 解读

One of the established approaches to causal discovery consists of combining directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with structural causal models (SCMs) to describe the functional dependencies of effects on their causes. Possible identifiability of SCMs given data depends on assumptions made on the noise variables and the functional classes in the SCM. For instance, in the LiNGAM model, the functional class is restricted to linear functions and the disturbances have to be…