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断点回归设计中的噪声诱导随机化AI 解读

Regression discontinuity designs assess causal effects in settings where treatment is determined by whether an observed running variable crosses a pre-specified threshold. Here we propose a new approach to identification, estimation, and inference in regression discontinuity designs that uses knowledge about exogenous noise (e.g., measurement error) in the running variable. In our strategy, we weight treated and control units to balance a latent variable of which the running…

ICH E9（R1）框架下随机试验累积发生率与处理效应的推断AI 解读

In randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that focus on time-to-event outcomes, intercurrent events can arise in two ways: as semi-competing events, which modify the hazard of the primary outcome events, or as competing events, which make the definition of the primary outcome events unclear. Although five strategies have been proposed in the ICH E9 (R1) addendum to address intercurrent events in RCTs, these strategies are not easily applicable to time-to-event outcomes when…

利用辅助变量提高时变处理效应估计效率AI 解读

Contextual sensing and delivery of digital interventions to improve health outcomes have gained significant traction in behavioral and psychiatric studies. Micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are a common experimental design for obtaining data-driven evidence on the effectiveness of digital interventions where each individual is repeatedly randomized to receive treatments over numerous time points. Throughout the study, individual characteristics and contextual factors around…

改进主研究/外部验证研究设计下回归校准的可迁移性AI 解读

In epidemiology, obtaining accurate individual exposure measurements can be costly and challenging. Thus, these measurements are often subject to error. Regression calibration with a validation study is widely employed as a study design and analysis method to correct for measurement error in the main study due to its broad applicability and simple implementation. However, relying on an external validation study to assess the measurement error process carries the risk of…

因果推断中多类处理效应的统一估计方法AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is developed under the statistical functional and cumulative distribution function structure, which leads to a flexible and robust estimator and covers some frequent treatment effects. In addition, our approach also takes variable selection into…

竞争性参与者下的政策学习AI 解读

Decision makers often aim to learn a treatment assignment policy under a capacity constraint on the number of agents that they can treat. When agents can respond strategically to such policies, competition arises, complicating estimation of the optimal policy. In this paper, we study capacity-constrained treatment assignment in the presence of such interference. We consider a dynamic model where the decision maker allocates treatments at each time step and heterogeneous…

固定时期数线性因子模型中处理效应的识别与估计AI 解读

This paper provides a new approach for identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated under a linear factor model that allows for multiple time-varying unobservables. Unlike the majority of the literature on treatment effects in linear factor models, our approach does not require the number of pre-treatment periods to go to infinity to obtain a valid estimator. Our identification approach employs a certain nonlinear transformations of the time…

动态断点回归：事件研究方法AI 解读

I propose a novel argument to identify economically interpretable intertemporal treatment effects in dynamic regression discontinuity designs (RDDs). Specifically, I develop a dynamic potential outcomes model and reformulate two assumptions from the difference-in-differences literature, no anticipation and common trends, to attain point identification of cutoff-specific impulse responses. The estimand of each target parameter can be expressed as the sum of two static RDD…

利用伪观测进行协变量调整的限制平均生存时间贝叶斯分析AI 解读

The difference in restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a clinically meaningful measure to quantify treatment effect in randomized controlled trials, especially when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Several frequentist methods exist to estimate RMST adjusted for covariates based on modeling and integrating the survival function. A more natural approach may be a regression model on RMST using pseudo-observations, which allows for a direct estimation…

多层网络回归中的特征向量中心性与社区结构AI 解读

In the analysis of complex networks, centrality measures and community structures play pivotal roles. For multilayer networks, a critical challenge lies in effectively integrating information across diverse layers while accounting for the dependence structures both within and between layers. We propose an innovative two-stage regression model for multilayer networks, combining eigenvector centrality and network community structure within fourth-order tensor-like multilayer…

将元分析整合到特定研究中以估计条件平均处理效应：InMASSAI 解读

Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for estimating causal effects, ensuring sufficient statistical power and confidence through adequate sample sizes. However, achieving such sample sizes is often challenging. This study proposes a novel method for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in a target population by integrating and reconstructing information from previous trials using only summary statistics of outcomes and covariates through…

临床试验中利用外部对照：目标量、估计与假设AI 解读

It is increasingly common to augment randomized controlled trial with external controls from observational data, to evaluate the treatment effect of an intervention. Traditional approaches to treatment effect estimation involve ambiguous estimands and unrealistic or strong assumptions, such as mean exchangeability. We introduce a double-indexed notation for potential outcomes to define causal estimands transparently and clarify distinct sources of implicit bias. We show that…

未观测混杂下多处理因果推断的copula敏感性分析AI 解读

Recent work has focused on the potential and pitfalls of causal identification in observational studies with multiple simultaneous treatments. Building on previous work, we show that even if the conditional distribution of unmeasured confounders given treatments were known exactly, the causal effects would not in general be identifiable, although they may be partially identified. Given these results, we propose a sensitivity analysis method for characterizing the effects of…

两个随机变量之和的分布界：重访Kolmogorov问题及个体处理效应应用AI 解读

We revisit the following problem, proposed by Kolmogorov: given prescribed marginal distributions $F$ and $G$ for random variables $X,Y$ respectively, characterize the set of compatible distribution functions for the sum $Z=X+Y$. Bounds on the distribution function for $Z$ were first given by Markarov (1982) and Rüschendorf (1982) independently. Frank et al. (1987) provided a solution to the same problem using copula theory. However, though these authors obtain the same…

非参数面板模型中平均处理效应的识别AI 解读

This paper studies identification of average treatment effects in a panel data setting. It introduces a novel nonparametric factor model and proves identification of average treatment effects. The identification proof is based on the introduction of a consistent estimator. Underlying the proof is a result that there is a consistent estimator for the expected outcome in the absence of the treatment for each unit and time period; this result can be applied more broadly, for…

联邦因果推断：超越元分析的多研究平均处理效应估计AI 解读

We study Federated Causal Inference, an approach to estimate treatment effects from decentralized data across centers. We compare three classes of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimators derived from the Plug-in G-Formula, ranging from simple meta-analysis to one-shot and multi-shot federated learning, the latter leveraging the full data to learn the outcome model (albeit requiring more communication). Focusing on Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs), we derive the…

给识别界加入协变量：究竟要回答什么问题？AI 解读

Symbolic nonparametric bounds for partial identification of causal effects now have a long history in the causal literature. Sharp bounds, bounds that use all available information to make the range of values as narrow as possible, are often the goal. For this reason, many publications have focused on deriving sharp bounds, but the concept of sharp bounds is nuanced and can be misleading. In settings with ancillary covariates, the situation becomes more complex. We provide…

局部干扰：半参数因果模型中干扰偏差的消除AI 解读

Interference bias is a major impediment to identifying causal effects in real-world settings. For example, vaccination reduces the transmission of a virus in a population such that everyone benefits -- even those who are not treated. This is a source of bias that must be accounted for if one wants to learn the true effect of a vaccine on an individual's immune system. Previous approaches addressing interference bias require strong domain knowledge in the form of a graphical…

通过序贯调整混杂与样本流失恢复因果效应并开展推断AI 解读

Confounding bias and selection bias bring two significant challenges to the validity of conclusions drawn from applied causal inference. The latter can stem from informative missingness, such as in cases of attrition. We introduce the Sequential Adjustment Criteria (SAC), which extend available graphical conditions for recovering causal effects from confounding and attrition using sequential regressions, allowing for the inclusion of post-exposure and forbidden variables in…

高维模型中个体化分位数处理效应的极小极大速率最优推断AI 解读

The quantification of treatment effects plays an important role in a wide range of applications, including policy making and bio-pharmaceutical research. In this article, we study the quantile treatment effect (QTE) while addressing two specific types of heterogeneities: (a) personalized heterogeneity, which captures the varying treatment effects for different individuals, and (b) quantile heterogeneity, which accounts for how the impact of covariates varies across different…

嵌入网络自回归：时间序列分析与因果同伴效应推断AI 解读

We propose an Embedding Network Autoregressive Model for multivariate networked longitudinal data. We assume the network is generated from a latent variable model, and these unobserved variables are included in a structural peer effect model or a time series network autoregressive model as additive effects. This approach takes a unified view of two related yet fundamentally different problems: (1) modeling and predicting multivariate networked time series data and (2) causal…

网络干扰下因果推断的局部方法AI 解读

We propose a new nonparametric modeling framework for causal inference when outcomes depend on how agents are linked in a social or economic network. Such network interference describes a large literature on treatment spillovers, social interactions, social learning, information diffusion, disease and financial contagion, social capital formation, and more. Our approach works by first characterizing how an agent is linked in the network using the configuration of other…

智能对手行动计划的因果分析AI 解读

In this paper we demonstrate a new advance in causal Bayesian graphical modelling combined with Adversarial Risk Analysis. This research aims to support strategic analyses of various defensive interventions to counter the threat arising from plots of an adversary. These plots are characterised by a sequence of preparatory phases that an adversary must necessarily pass through to achieve their hostile objective. To do this we first define a new general class of plot models.…

基于得分匹配的线性、非线性与潜变量因果发现AI 解读

Causal discovery from observational data holds great promise, but existing methods rely on strong assumptions about the underlying causal structure, often requiring full observability of all relevant variables. We tackle these challenges by leveraging the score function $\nabla \log p(X)$ of observed variables for causal discovery and propose the following contributions. First, we fine-tune the existing identifiability results with the score on additive noise models, showing…