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基于非参数分布匹配的无似然自适应贝叶斯推断AI 解读

When the likelihood is analytically unavailable and computationally intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has emerged as a widely used methodology for approximate posterior inference; however, it suffers from severe computational inefficiency in high-dimensional settings or under diffuse priors. To overcome these limitations, we propose Adaptive Bayesian Inference (ABI), a framework that bypasses traditional data-space discrepancies and instead compares…

聚合交集界与其他因果参数的去偏机器学习AI 解读

This paper proposes a novel framework of aggregated intersection of regression functions, where the target parameter is obtained by averaging the minimum (or maximum) of a collection of regression functions over the covariate space. Such quantities include the lower and upper bounds on distributional effects (Frechet-Hoeffding, Makarov) and the optimal welfare in the statistical treatment choice problem. The proposed estimator -- the envelope score estimator -- is shown to…

双重交叉拟合的双重稳健估计：超越级数回归AI 解读

Doubly robust estimators with cross-fitting have gained popularity in causal inference due to their favorable structure-agnostic error guarantees. However, when additional structure, such as Hölder smoothness, is available then more accurate "double cross-fit doubly robust" (DCDR) estimators can be constructed by splitting the training data and undersmoothing nuisance function estimators on independent samples. We study a DCDR estimator of the Expected Conditional…

利用基于聚类的老虎机算法估计网络因果效应AI 解读

The gold standard for estimating causal effects is randomized controlled trial (RCT) or A/B testing where a random group of individuals from a population of interest are given treatment and the outcome is compared to a random group of individuals from the same population. However, A/B testing is challenging in the presence of interference, commonly occurring in social networks, where individuals can impact each others outcome. Moreover, A/B testing can incur a high…

细分层实验的新设计型方差估计量AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of design-based inference for the average treatment effect in finely stratified experiments. Here, by "design-based'' we mean that the only source of uncertainty stems from the randomness in treatment assignment; by "finely stratified'' we mean that units are stratified into groups of a fixed size according to baseline covariates and then, within each group, a fixed number of units are assigned uniformly at random to treatment and the…

顺序平衡的被试内设计中的因果推断AI 解读

Experimental designs are fundamental for estimating causal effects. In some fields, within-subjects designs, which expose participants to both control and treatment at different time periods, are used to address practical and logistical concerns. Counterbalancing, a common technique in within-subjects designs, aims to remove carryover effects by randomizing treatment sequences. Despite its appeal, counterbalancing relies on the assumption that carryover effects are symmetric…

利用因果图评估双重差分研究的平行趋势AI 解读

Difference-in-differences (DID) is popular because it can allow for unmeasured confounding when the key assumption of parallel trends holds. However, there exists little guidance on how to decide a priori whether this assumption is reasonable. We attempt to develop such guidance by considering the relationship between a causal diagram and the parallel trends assumption. This is challenging because parallel trends is scale-dependent and causal diagrams are generally…

比例渐近下广义线性模型与双重稳健泛函的矩估计推断AI 解读

In this paper, we consider the estimation of regression coefficients and signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio in high-dimensional Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), and explore their implications in inferring popular estimands such as average treatment effects in high-dimensional observational studies. Under the ``proportional asymptotic'' regime and Gaussian covariates with known (population) covariance $Σ$, we derive Consistent and Asymptotically Normal (CAN) estimators of our…

推荐系统中潜在混杂因素的因果结构表示学习AI 解读

Inferring user preferences from the historical feedback of users is a valuable problem in recommender systems. Conventional approaches often rely on the assumption that user preferences in the feedback data are equivalent to the real user preferences without additional noise, which simplifies the problem modeling. However, there are various confounders during user-item interactions, such as weather and even the recommendation system itself. Therefore, neglecting the…

MetaCountRegressor：计数模型综合分析与辅助估计的 Python 包AI 解读

{Analyzing and modeling rare events in count data presents significant challenges due to the scarcity of observations and the complexity of underlying processes, which are often overlooked by analysts due to limitations in time, resources, knowledge, and the influence of biases. This paper introduces MetaCountRegressor, a Python package designed to facilitate predictive count modeling of rare events guided by metaheuristics. The MetaCountRegressor package offers a wide range…

基于吸引子的共同演化随机点积图模型AI 解读

We introduce the attractor-based coevolving dot product random graph model (ABCDPRGM) to analyze time-series network data manifesting polarizing or flocking behavior. Graphs are generated based on latent positions under the random dot product graph regime. We assign group membership to each node. When evolving through time, the latent position of each node will change based on its current position and two attractors, which are defined to be the centers of the latent…

二元结局模型中的非线性变换内生性校正：识别与推断AI 解读

For binary outcome models, an endogeneity correction based on nonlinear rank-based transformations is proposed. Identification without external instruments is achieved under one of two assumptions: either the endogenous regressor is a nonlinear function of one component of the error term, conditional on the exogenous regressors, or the dependence between the endogenous and exogenous regressors is nonlinear. Under these conditions, we prove consistency and asymptotic…

面向非光滑目标函数 M 估计的基于抽样的联邦推断AI 解读

We propose a novel sampling-based federated learning framework for statistical inference on M-estimators with non-smooth objective functions, which frequently arise in modern statistical applications such as quantile regression and AUC maximization. Classical inference methods for such estimators are often computationally intensive or require nonparametric estimation of nuisance quantities. Our approach circumvents these challenges by leveraging Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

同时存在死亡截断与缺失的多元结局整群随机试验贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) on fragile populations frequently encounter complex attrition problems where the reasons for missing outcomes can be heterogeneous, with participants who are known alive, known to have died, or with unknown survival status, and with complex and distinct missing data mechanisms for each group. Although existing methods have been developed to address death truncation in CRTs, no existing methods can jointly accommodate participants who drop out…

动态局部平均治疗效应AI 解读

We consider Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) with One Sided Noncompliance that arise in applications such as digital recommendations and adaptive medical trials. These are settings where decision makers encourage individuals to take treatments over time, but adapt encouragements based on previous encouragements, treatments, states, and outcomes. Importantly, individuals may not comply with encouragements based on unobserved confounders. For settings with binary treatments…

通过深度神经网络开展个体治疗效应的扩展信赖推断AI 解读

Individual treatment effect estimation has gained significant attention in recent data science literature. This work introduces the Double Neural Network (Double-NN) method to address this problem within the framework of extended fiducial inference (EFI). In the proposed method, deep neural networks are used to model the treatment and control effect functions, while an additional neural network is employed to estimate their parameters. The universal approximation capability…

如何抽样与何时停止：广义 Wald 问题及极小极大策略AI 解读

We study sequential experiments where sampling is costly and a decision-maker aims to determine the best treatment for full scale implementation by (1) adaptively allocating units between two possible treatments, and (2) stopping the experiment when the expected welfare (inclusive of sampling costs) from implementing the chosen treatment is maximized. Working under a continuous time limit, we characterize the optimal policies under the minimax regret criterion. We show that…

内生群组中的社会互动AI 解读

This paper investigates social interactions in endogenous groups. We specify a two-sided many-to-one matching model, where individuals select groups based on preferences, while groups admit individuals based on qualifications until reaching capacities. Endogenous formation of groups leads to selection bias in peer effect estimation, which is complicated by equilibrium effects and alternative groups. We propose novel methods to simplify selection bias and develop a sieve OLS…

通过 CATE 建模与 Shapley 值识别预测性生物标志物：概述与实践建议AI 解读

In recent years, two parallel research trends have emerged in machine learning, yet their intersections remain largely unexplored. On one hand, there has been a significant increase in literature focused on Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) modeling, particularly targeting the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) using meta-learner techniques. These approaches often aim to identify causal effects from observational data. On the other hand, the field of Explainable…

Logistic 回归模型的聚类稳健刀切法与自助法推断AI 解读

We study cluster-robust inference for logistic regression (logit) models. Inference based on the most commonly-used cluster-robust variance matrix estimator (CRVE) can be very unreliable. We study several alternatives. Conceptually the simplest of these, but also the most computationally demanding, involves jackknifing at the cluster level. We also propose a linearized version of the cluster-jackknife variance matrix estimator as well as linearized versions of the wild…

理解并避免 OLS 的“加权问题”：未建模的异质性与直接解决方案AI 解读

Researchers frequently estimate treatment effects by regressing outcomes (Y) on treatment (D) and covariates (X). Even without unobserved confounding, the coefficient on D yields a conditional-variance-weighted average of strata-wise effects, not the average treatment effect. Scholars have proposed characterizing the severity of these weights, evaluating resulting biases, or changing investigators' target estimand to the conditional-variance-weighted effect. We aim to…

信息性规模下的整群随机交叉试验究竟估计什么：目标量与常用估计量综述AI 解读

In the analysis of cluster randomized trials (CRTs), previous work has defined two meaningful estimands: the individual-average treatment effect (iATE) and cluster-average treatment effect (cATE) estimand, to address individual and cluster-level hypotheses. In multi-period CRT designs, such as the cluster randomized crossover (CRXO) trial, additional weighted average treatment effect estimands help fully reflect the longitudinal nature of these trial designs, namely the…

聚类序贯多次随机试验的 Q 学习：自适应干预中的效应调节变量AI 解读

A clustered adaptive intervention (cAI) is a pre-specified sequence of decision rules that guides practitioners on how best - and based on which measures - to tailor cluster-level intervention to improve outcomes at the level of individuals within the clusters. A clustered sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (cSMART) is a type of trial that is used to inform the empirical development of a cAI. The most common type of secondary aim in a cSMART focuses on assessing…

未测混杂下连续动作空间的强化学习AI 解读

This paper addresses the challenge of offline policy learning in reinforcement learning with continuous action spaces when unmeasured confounders are present. While most existing research focuses on policy evaluation within partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) and assumes discrete action spaces, we advance this field by establishing a novel identification result to enable the nonparametric estimation of policy value for a given target policy under an…