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I study randomization inference for dynamic causal effects in panels with many units and few periods when treatment is endogenous and an instrument is as good as randomly assigned only through the innovations of a first-order autoregressive assignment mechanism with unknown persistence. The persistence is a nuisance parameter in two senses: it determines which weighted average of heterogeneous causal effects the instrumented local projection estimand measures, and it governs…

含交互效应的动态面板模型的全局识别AI 解读

We investigate the problem of global identification in dynamic panel models with interactive effects, in the large-N, fixed-T setting. While local identification, typically established via the Jacobian matrix, is well understood, global identification has remained a more elusive and challenging issue. It is commonly believed to be unachievable in this context. However, we demonstrate that the model is, in fact, globally identified for almost all configurations of the…

外部验证研究中回归校准测量误差校正的可迁移性AI 解读

In nutritional and environmental epidemiology, exposures are impractical to measure accurately, while practical measures for these exposures are often subject to substantial measurement error. Regression calibration is among the most used measurement error correction methods with external validation studies. The use of external studies to assess the measurement error process always carries the risk of introducing estimation bias into the main study analysis. Although the…

面板数据模型中多重长期关系的分析AI 解读

The literature on panel cointegration is extensive but does not cover data sets where the cross section dimension, $n$, is larger than the time series dimension $T$. This paper proposes a novel methodology that filters out the short run dynamics using sub-sample time averages as deviations from their full-sample counterpart, and estimates the number of long-run relations and their coefficients using eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the pooled covariance matrix of these…

短时间维度面板模型中的异质自回归AI 解读

This paper considers a first-order autoregressive panel data model with individual-specific effects and heterogeneous autoregressive coefficients defined on the interval (-1,1], thus allowing for some of the individual processes to have unit roots. It proposes estimators for the moments of the cross-sectional distribution of the autoregressive (AR) coefficients, assuming a random coefficient model for the autoregressive coefficients without imposing any restrictions on the…

存在测量误差时的协变量平衡AI 解读

In recent years, there is a growing body of causal inference literature focusing on covariate balancing methods. These methods eliminate observed confounding by equalizing covariate moments between the treated and control groups. The validity of covariate balancing relies on an implicit assumption that all covariates are accurately measured, which is frequently violated in observational studies. Nevertheless, the impact of measurement error on covariate balancing is unclear,…

预测分位数回归中的统计推断AI 解读

This paper studies inference in predictive quantile regressions when the predictive regressor has a near-unit root. We derive asymptotic distributions for the quantile regression estimator and its heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) t-statistic in terms of functionals of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. We then propose a switching-fully modified (FM) predictive test for quantile predictability. The proposed test employs an FM style correction with a…

暴露测量误差插补型回归校准的因果协变量选择AI 解读

In this paper, we identify the criteria for the selection of the minimal and most efficient covariate adjustment sets for the regression calibration method developed by Carroll, Rupert and Stefanski (CRS, 1992), used to correct bias due to continuous exposure measurement error. We utilize directed acyclic graphs to illustrate how subject matter knowledge can aid in the selection of such adjustment sets. Valid measurement error correction requires the collection of data on…

网络依赖与非平稳性下的极限理论AI 解读

These lecture notes represent supplementary material for a short course on time series econometrics and network econometrics. We give emphasis on limit theory for time series regression models as well as the use of the local-to-unity parametrization when modeling time series nonstationarity. Moreover, we present various non-asymptotic theory results for moderate deviation principles when considering the eigenvalues of covariance matrices as well as asymptotics for unit root…

连续暴露测量有误时的因果暴露—反应函数估计：细颗粒物与全因死亡AI 解读

Numerous studies have examined the associations between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and adverse health outcomes. Recently, many of these studies have begun to employ high-resolution predicted PM2.5 concentrations, which are subject to measurement error. Previous approaches for exposure measurement error correction have either been applied in non-causal settings or have only considered a categorical exposure. Moreover, most procedures have failed to…

含一般因子与回归变量的交互效应面板模型AI 解读

This paper considers a model with general regressors and unobservable factors. An estimator based on iterated principal components is proposed, which is shown to be not only asymptotically normal and oracle efficient, but under certain conditions also free of the otherwise so common asymptotic incidental parameters bias. Interestingly, the conditions required to achieve unbiasedness become weaker the stronger the trends in the factors, and if the trending is strong enough…