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L2 松弛：预测组合与投资组合分析AI 解读

This paper tackles forecast combination with many forecasts or minimum variance portfolio selection with many assets. A novel convex problem called L2-relaxation is proposed. In contrast to standard formulations, L2-relaxation minimizes the squared Euclidean norm of the weight vector subject to a set of relaxed linear inequality constraints. The magnitude of relaxation, controlled by a tuning parameter, balances the bias and variance. When the variance-covariance (VC) matrix…

Trawl 过程与 ambit 场的模拟方法及误差分析AI 解读

Trawl processes are continuous-time, stationary and infinitely divisible processes which can describe a wide range of possible serial correlation patterns in data. In this paper, we introduce new simulation algorithms for trawl processes with monotonic trawl functions and establish their error bounds and convergence properties. We extensively analyse the computational complexity and practical implementation of these algorithms and discuss which one to use depending on the…

预平均法估计时间序列张量因子模型的秩与因子载荷AI 解读

Tensor time series data appears naturally in a lot of fields, including finance and economics. As a major dimension reduction tool, similar to its factor model counterpart, the idiosyncratic components of a tensor time series factor model can exhibit serial correlations, especially in financial and economic applications. This rules out a lot of state-of-the-art methods that assume white idiosyncratic components, or even independent/Gaussian data. While the traditional higher…

随机时间序列中的频率调制检测AI 解读

We propose a new statistical test to identify non-stationary frequency-modulated stochastic processes from time series data. Our method uses the instantaneous phase as a discriminatory statistics with reliable critical values derived from surrogate data. We simulated an oscillatory second-order autoregressive process to evaluate the size and power of the test. We found that the test we propose is able to correctly identify more than 99% of non-stationary data when the…

高斯从属长程依赖过程的最优分块重抽样AI 解读

Block-based resampling estimators have been intensively investigated for weakly dependent time processes, which has helped to inform implementation (e.g., best block sizes). However, little is known about resampling performance and block sizes under strong or long-range dependence. To establish guideposts in block selection, we consider a broad class of strongly dependent time processes, formed by a transformation of a stationary long-memory Gaussian series, and examine…

相关网络值过程的集中不等式及其社区与变点估计应用AI 解读

Network-valued time series are currently a common form of network data. However, the study of the aggregate behavior of network sequences generated from network-valued stochastic processes is relatively rare. Most of the existing research focuses on the simple setup where the networks are independent (or conditionally independent) across time, and all edges are updated synchronously at each time step. In this paper, we study the concentration properties of the aggregated…

融合机器学习的时变参数全球向量自回归：经济动态解释与预测AI 解读

The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application settings, where a variety of machine learning models can be incorporated for out-of-sample prediction. The LASSO-type technique for numerically efficient model selection of mean squared errors (MSEs) is selected. We show the convincing…

结合自回归与得分驱动动态的时变排名模型AI 解读

We develop a new statistical model to analyse time-varying ranking data. The model can be used with a large number of ranked items, accommodates exogenous time-varying covariates and partial rankings, and is estimated via the maximum likelihood in a straightforward manner. Rankings are modelled using the Plackett-Luce distribution with time-varying worth parameters that follow a mean-reverting time series process. To capture the dependence of the worth parameters on past…

利用大规模调查预期序列预测欧元区通胀AI 解读

In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using an econometric model which exploits a massive number of time series on survey expectations for the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey. To make estimation of such a huge model tractable, we use recent advances in computational statistics to carry out posterior simulation and inference. Our findings suggest that the inclusion of a wide range of firms and consumers' opinions about…

稀疏贝叶斯状态空间与时变参数模型AI 解读

In this chapter, we review variance selection for time-varying parameter (TVP) models for univariate and multivariate time series within a Bayesian framework. We show how both continuous as well as discrete spike-and-slab shrinkage priors can be transferred from variable selection for regression models to variance selection for TVP models by using a non-centered parametrization. We discuss efficient MCMC estimation and provide an application to US inflation modeling.

基于张量 CP 分解的矩阵时间序列建模AI 解读

We consider to model matrix time series based on a tensor CP-decomposition. Instead of using an iterative algorithm which is the standard practice for estimating CP-decompositions, we propose a new and one-pass estimation procedure based on a generalized eigenanalysis constructed from the serial dependence structure of the underlying process. To overcome the intricacy of solving a rank-reduced generalized eigenequation, we propose a further refined approach which projects it…

双变量卫星时间序列聚类：分位数方法AI 解读

Clustering has received much attention in Statistics and Machine learning with the aim of developing statistical models and autonomous algorithms which are capable of acquiring information from raw data in order to perform exploratory analysis.Several techniques have been developed to cluster sampled univariate vectors only considering the average value over the whole period and as such they have not been able to explore fully the underlying distribution as well as other…

时变泊松自回归AI 解读

In this paper we propose a new time-varying econometric model, called Time-Varying Poisson AutoRegressive with eXogenous covariates (TV-PARX), suited to model and forecast time series of counts. {We show that the score-driven framework is particularly suitable to recover the evolution of time-varying parameters and provides the required flexibility to model and forecast time series of counts characterized by convoluted nonlinear dynamics and structural breaks.} We study the…

漏报非平稳时间序列的贝叶斯合成似然估计：西班牙新冠发病率AI 解读

The problem of dealing with misreported data is very common in a wide range of contexts for different reasons. The current situation caused by the Covid-19 worldwide pandemic is a clear example, where the data provided by official sources were not always reliable due to data collection issues and to the high proportion of asymptomatic cases. In this work, we explore the performance of Bayesian Synthetic Likelihood to estimate the parameters of a model capable of dealing with…

多尺度因果结构学习AI 解读

The inference of causal structures from observed data plays a key role in unveiling the underlying dynamics of the system. This paper exposes a novel method, named Multiscale-Causal Structure Learning (MS-CASTLE), to estimate the structure of linear causal relationships occurring at different time scales. Differently from existing approaches, MS-CASTLE takes explicitly into account instantaneous and lagged inter-relations between multiple time series, represented at…

Greykite：在 LinkedIn 大规模部署灵活预测AI 解读

Forecasts help businesses allocate resources and achieve objectives. At LinkedIn, product owners use forecasts to set business targets, track outlook, and monitor health. Engineers use forecasts to efficiently provision hardware. Developing a forecasting solution to meet these needs requires accurate and interpretable forecasts on diverse time series with sub-hourly to quarterly frequencies. We present Greykite, an open-source Python library for forecasting that has been…

FLIP：保留时间序列效用的隐私机制AI 解读

Guaranteeing privacy in released data is an important goal for data-producing agencies. There has been extensive research on developing suitable privacy mechanisms in recent years. Particularly notable is the idea of noise addition with the guarantee of differential privacy. There are, however, concerns about compromising data utility when very stringent privacy mechanisms are applied. Such compromises can be quite stark in correlated data, such as time series data. Adding…

基于一般移动和方法的时间序列分段AI 解读

In this paper we propose new methodology for the data segmentation, also known as multiple change point problem, in a general framework including classic mean change scenarios, changes in linear regression but also changes in the time series structure such as in the parameters of Poisson-autoregressive time series. In particular, we derive a general theory based on estimating equations proving consistency for the number of change points as well as rates of convergence for…

双参数预测函数族：季节性模型、平滑与 ARIMA 比较及股市应用AI 解读

We introduce twenty four two-parameter families of advanced time series forecasting functions using a new and nonparametric approach. We also introduce the concept of powering and derive nonseasonal and seasonal models with examples in education, sales, finance and economy. We compare the performance of our twenty four models to both Holt--Winters and ARIMA models for both nonseasonal and seasonal times series. We show in particular that our models not only do not require a…

函数型球面自相关：函数时间序列自相关的稳健估计AI 解读

We propose a new autocorrelation measure for functional time series that we term spherical autocorrelation. It is based on measuring the average angle between lagged pairs of series after having been projected onto the unit sphere. This new measure enjoys several complimentary advantages compared to existing autocorrelation measures for functional data, since it both 1) describes a notion of sign or direction of serial dependence in the series, and 2) is more robust to…

利用领先指标即时预测瑞典新冠死亡人数AI 解读

The real-time analysis of infectious disease surveillance data, e.g., in the form of a time-series of reported cases or fatalities, is essential in obtaining situational awareness about the current dynamics of an adverse health event such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This real-time analysis is complicated by reporting delays that lead to underreporting of the number of events for the most recent time points (e.g., days or weeks). This can lead to misconceptions by the…

具有因子随机波动率的大型贝叶斯 VAR：识别、排序不变性与结构分析AI 解读

Vector autoregressions (VARs) with multivariate stochastic volatility are widely used for structural analysis. Often the structural model identified through economically meaningful restrictions--e.g., sign restrictions--is supposed to be independent of how the dependent variables are ordered. But since the reduced-form model is not order invariant, results from the structural analysis depend on the order of the variables. We consider a VAR based on the factor stochastic…

基于破纪录事件的分布无关变点检验AI 解读

The analysis of record-breaking events is of interest in fields such as climatology, hydrology or anthropology. In connection with the record occurrence, we propose three distribution-free statistics for the changepoint detection problem. They are CUSUM-type statistics based on the upper and/or lower record indicators observed in a series. Using a version of the functional central limit theorem, we show that the CUSUM-type statistics are asymptotically Kolmogorov…

变点位置随机出现时的参数变点检测AI 解读

We are concerned with the problem of detecting a single change point in the model parameters of time series data generated from an exponential family. In contrast to the existing literature, we allow that the true location of the change point is itself random, possibly depending on the data. Under the alternative, we study the case when the size of the change point converges to zero while the sample size goes to infinity. Moreover, we concentrate on change points in the…