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面板数据模型中折点的估计与检验AI 解读

Many economic and financial relationships may change gradually rather than abruptly. We study panel data models in which the coefficient vector is continuous and piecewise linear in calendar time, with a finite number of unknown kink dates at which its slope changes. We propose a penalised least squares estimator that applies adaptive weighted group penalties to the second differences of the coefficient path, and develop asymptotic theory showing that it recovers both the…

带序列相关扰动的非线性回归神经网络：来自云量的证据AI 解读

We propose a new treatment of nonlinear regression with serially correlated disturbances that incorporates autoregressive moving average structures into feedforward neural networks. The resulting model provides an alternative to modeling temporal dependence using lagged variables. In simulations, the proposed method accurately recovers regression functions of varying complexity and the underlying error dynamics across a range of time-series lengths and signal-to-noise…

层级与分组时间序列预测协调的预测组合框架AI 解读

Forecast combining and forecast reconciliation for hierarchical and grouped time series have largely developed as separate research areas. This paper connects the two by developing a forecast combination framework for forecast reconciliation. For each bottom-level series, we construct a maximal linearly independent set of structured candidate forecasts from aggregation constraints, and show that combining these candidates and aggregating the resulting bottom-level forecasts…

使用大语言模型进行宏观经济预测AI 解读

This paper presents a comparative analysis evaluating the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) against traditional macro time series forecasting approaches. In recent times, LLMs have surged in popularity for forecasting due to their ability to capture intricate patterns in data and quickly adapt across very different domains. However, their effectiveness in forecasting macroeconomic time series data compared to conventional methods remains an area of interest. To…

大型贝叶斯张量自回归AI 解读

The availability of multidimensional economic datasets has grown significantly in recent years. An example is bilateral trade values across goods among countries, comprising three dimensions -- importing countries, exporting countries, and goods -- forming a third-order tensor time series. This paper introduces a general Bayesian tensor autoregressive framework to analyze the dynamics of large, multidimensional time series with a particular focus on international trade…

短与超短时间序列的聚类局部投影：分层贝叶斯框架AI 解读

Estimating the dynamic effects of economic shocks in short and very short samples is impeded by a lack of degrees of freedom. We offer a solution based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework for estimating local projection (LP) impulse response functions across a panel of related time series. The framework explicitly accommodates unbalanced panels in which some series are substantially shorter than others, allowing the short series to borrow information from longer ones at…

依赖数据下的 WAIC：线性时间复杂度的协方差修正框架AI 解读

The Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC) is a cornerstone of Bayesian model selection, but its conditional independence assumption renders it inappropriate for sequential and spatially correlated data - a limitation that leads to systematically underestimated model complexity and over-optimistic predictive assessments. We introduce CC-WAIC, a principled generalization of WAIC that explicitly incorporates the full posterior covariance structure of log-likelihood…

高维时间序列中的变点检测与定位AI 解读

We present new inference tools for change point detection in high-dimensional time series. We discuss two distinct statistical applications: First, sequential change point testing in an incoming data-stream. Second, retrospective localization of multiple changes, with confidence intervals at a globally controlled error level. Test statistics are built on the maximum norm to generate power against sparse and asynchronous changes. Both problems are tackled by related…

用时空加性高斯过程填补粮食安全监测的调查空缺AI 解读

Ensuring food security across all regions of a country requires continuous monitoring, yet household surveys often leave significant spatio-temporal gaps due to resource constraints and operational priorities. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal additive Gaussian process model to estimate sub-national food security time series by regions. To address the computational cost of Gaussian process models, we exploit Kronecker structure of the spatio-temporal covariance…

宏观审慎政策与下行风险：资本监管的状态依赖效应AI 解读

This paper employs a Threshold Bayesian Vector Autoregression (TBVAR) to estimate the regime-dependent macroeconomic effects of capital regulation in Hungary. Using the Factor-based Index of Systemic Stress (FISS) as the threshold variable, the model identifies normal and stress regimes consistent with the occasionally binding constraints literature. The TBVAR offers a practical multivariate alternative to Growth-at-Risk for data-constrained economies. Generalised impulse…

一周价格翻倍：进口隔离市场中的农业价格波动预测AI 解读

Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-gate prices with origin-aligned…

异质主体模型的有限信息估计AI 解读

We develop a method for estimating and testing a single block of a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous agents, without placing assumptions on the structure of the rest of the economy. In a large class of models, individual agents' decisions depend on the macroeconomy only through their expectations of the evolution of a finite-dimensional vector of "sufficient statistics" (e.g., asset returns or aggregate earnings). Our estimator selects the structural parameters that…

异质高维函数型时间序列的变点检测AI 解读

High-dimensional functional panels consist of temporally ordered curves observed across many subjects and naturally exhibit heterogeneous structural changes. Under sparse subject-level break signals or opposite-signed shifts, traditional mean-aggregated CUSUM procedures may suffer noticeable power loss due to signal attenuation or cancellation induced by cross-sectional averaging. We propose a novel Energy--PE statistic, which combines subject-wise squared CUSUM energy…

重审近似因子模型主成分估计量的渐近理论AI 解读

It is well known that approximate factor models exhibit rotation indeterminacy. Principal component (PC) estimators are typically analyzed relative to a rotated factor-loading representation, but the commonly used rotation depends on the estimator itself, leaving unclear which fixed population parameters are estimated. We show that any starting representation of the common component can be mapped by a rotation matrix $\bH$, constructed without using the PC estimator or the…

函数型时间序列结构畸变的检测AI 解读

In the era of modern data science, the rapid proliferation of high-dimensional and functional datasets has fostered increasing interest in the investigation of paradigm shifts and structural breaks. Unlike classical univariate time series, structural changes in functional data need not occur simultaneously across the entire domain; instead, they may emerge locally, producing heterogeneous distortions across the underlying functional structure. The patterns of instability…

测量时间之箭：多元时间序列方向结构的识别、估计与推断AI 解读

Many questions across the sciences take the same form: several coupled series are observed together, and the analyst wants to know not merely that they move together but which one moves first, and how strongly. This paper sets out a complete method built on one organising idea: the direction of a coupled system is exactly the part of its behaviour that changes when the record is played backwards. Tools built on contemporaneous covariance alone (correlation matrices, distance…

WIRED：结构化依赖下的加权自适应多序列概率预测AI 解读

This paper presents WIRED, an R package algorithm for joint probabilistic forecasting of multiple related time series. WIRED combines a library of simple marginal predictive distributions, CRPS-based adaptive mixture weights, and a Gaussian or Student t copula for cross-series simulation. We evaluate the implementation in a benchmark with four synthetic data-generating processes (DGPs), three forecast horizons, 30 replicates per DGP-horizon pair, nine ablations and external…

弱因子下用于宏观金融预测的监督混频学习AI 解读

Factor-MIDAS regressions forecast a low-frequency target by extracting common factors from a large panel of high-frequency predictors via principal component analysis (PCA). While PCA mitigates the curse of dimensionality, it relies on factor pervasiveness, an assumption often violated when factors are weak, as is common in macro-financial forecasting. We propose SsPCA-MIDAS, which integrates supervised scaled PCA (SsPCA) into the mixed-data sampling framework. We establish…

高维稀疏谱精度矩阵的统计推断AI 解读

Statistical inference for the spectral precision matrix at a given frequency allows us to assess frequency-specific conditional relationships among the components of a stationary multivariate time series. Compared with classical analogues, inference in the spectral domain is more challenging due to the absence of closed-form asymptotic variance expressions for complex-valued estimators, the limited asymptotic theory in high-dimensional settings, and the presence of…

时变多重季节性 ARMA 模型AI 解读

We propose an ARMA model that allows for multiple seasonal periods and time varying parameters in both regular and seasonal components, building upon previous work for pure AR processes and the conditional likelihood. The model is parameterized to ensure stability and invertibility at each time point. The parameter evolution is governed by dynamic shrinkage processes, enabling extended periods of essentially constant parameters, gradual changes, and abrupt shifts. The model…

流形上离散观测函数型时间序列的长程依赖谱检验AI 解读

A specification test for long range dependence (LRD) in functional time series in manifolds has been formulated in \cite{Ruiz-MedinaCrujeiras24} in the spectral domain for fully observed functional data. The asymptotic Gaussian distribution of the proposed test statistics, based on the weighted periodogram operator, under the null hypothesis, and the consistency of the test have been derived. In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic properties of this LRD spectral testing…

重尾长记忆线性时间序列中序列尾部依赖估计的中心极限定理AI 解读

We prove multiple central limit theorems for serial tail dependence estimators in heavy-tailed long memory linear time series. The main theoretical tools are two novel multivariate reduction principles for partial sums of heavy-tailed long memory linear time series, subordinated over sliding windows and above a threshold growing with sample size. This requires addressing several substantial difficulties, including handling a nonlinear, sample-size dependent, and multivariate…

非平稳时间序列条件独立检验的动态广义协方差度量AI 解读

Identifying relationships among stochastic processes is a core objective in many fields, such as economics. While the standard toolkit for multivariate time series analysis has many advantages, it can be difficult to capture nonlinear dynamics using linear vector autoregressive models. This difficulty has motivated the development of methods for causal discovery and variable selection for nonlinear time series, which routinely employ tests for conditional independence. In…

利用随机投影分析高维数据变点AI 解读

This paper develops a novel change point identification method for high-dimensional data using random projections. By projecting high-dimensional time series into a one-dimensional space, we are able to leverage the rich literature for univariate time series. We propose applying random projections multiple times and then combining the univariate test results using existing multiple comparison methods. Simulation results suggest that the proposed method tends to have better…