Beyond Match Results: Bayesian Mediation of Ability, Performance, and Winning in Professional Tennis
超越比赛结果:职业网球中能力、表现与获胜的贝叶斯中介分析
Match results measure competitive ability, but they do not explain how ability is expressed during play. Match statistics offer a natural mediator, however performance is usually measured over the same match as the outcome: a full-match statistic uses events that help determine the winner, while a first-set statistic is earlier but rests on fewer service points and still contributes to the result. Comparing the two therefore mixes timing and precision. We develop a Bayesian…