Empirical Global Games of Regime Change
政权更替的实证全局博弈模型
Global games theory provides a tractable framework for analyzing coordination problems with multiple equilibria, with regime overthrow serving as a canonical application. A large empirical literature on coups d'état examines the relationship between country-level characteristics, coup occurrence, and coup success using reduced-form approaches that leave the underlying coordination problem implicit. Bridging these literatures, we develop an estimable global games model of…