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How weak are weak factors? Uniform inference for signal strength in signal plus noise models

弱因子究竟有多弱?信号加噪声模型中信号强度的统一推断

The paper analyzes four classical signal-plus-noise models: the factor model, spiked sample covariance matrices, the sum of a Wigner matrix and a low-rank perturbation, and canonical correlation analysis with low-rank dependencies. The objective is to construct confidence intervals for the signal strength that are uniformly valid across all regimes - strong, weak, and critical signals. We demonstrate that traditional Gaussian approximations fail in the critical regime.…

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Largevars: An R Package for Testing Large VARs for the Presence of Cointegration

Largevars:检验大型 VAR 协整关系的 R 包

Cointegration is a property of multivariate time series that determines whether its non-stationary, growing components have a stationary linear combination. Largevars R package conducts a cointegration test for high-dimensional vector autoregressions of order k based on the large N, T asymptotics of Bykhovskaya and Gorin (2022, 2025). The implemented test is a modification of the Johansen likelihood ratio test. In the absence of cointegration the test converges to the…

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Asymptotics of Cointegration Tests for High-Dimensional VAR($k$)

高维 VAR(k) 协整检验的渐近理论

The paper studies nonstationary high-dimensional vector autoregressions of order $k$, VAR($k$). Additional deterministic terms such as trend or seasonality are allowed. The number of time periods, $T$, and the number of coordinates, $N$, are assumed to be large and of the same order. Under this regime the first-order asymptotics of the Johansen likelihood ratio (LR), Pillai-Bartlett, and Hotelling-Lawley tests for cointegration are derived: the test statistics converge to…

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