Drivers of Success: A Bayesian State-Space Model to Disentangling Latent Driver and Constructor Abilities in Formula One
成功的驱动力:分离一级方程式车手与车队潜在能力的贝叶斯状态空间模型
Formula One outcomes reflect the joint contributions of drivers and constructors, but these contributions are unobserved and vary over time. We propose a Bayesian state-space model that disentangles dynamic driver and constructor abilities using two observed outcomes: fastest qualifying lap times and race rankings. Both outcomes depend jointly on latent driver and constructor states that evolve at the Grand Prix level, while the race equation additionally accounts for…