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The Innovation Tax: Generative AI Adoption, Productivity Paradox, and Systemic Risk in the U.S. Banking Sector

创新税:生成式人工智能采用、生产率悖论与美国银行业系统性风险

This paper evaluates the causal impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) adoption on productivity and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector. Using a novel dataset linking SEC 10-Q filings to Federal Reserve regulatory data for 809 financial institutions over 2018--2025, we employ two complementary identification strategies: Dynamic Spatial Durbin Models (DSDM) to capture network spillovers and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) for causal inference…

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General Equilibrium Amplification and Crisis Vulnerability: Cross-Crisis Evidence from Global Banks

一般均衡放大与危机脆弱性:全球银行的跨危机证据

This paper develops a continuous framework for analyzing financial contagion that incorporates both geographic proximity and interbank network linkages. The framework characterizes stress propagation through a master equation whose solution admits a Feynman-Kac representation as expected cumulative stress along stochastic paths through spatial-network space. From this representation, I derive the General Equilibrium Amplification Factor -- a structural measure of systemic…

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Dynamic Spatial Treatment Effects and Network Fragility: Theory and Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis

动态空间处理效应与网络脆弱性:2008年金融危机的理论与证据

The 2008 financial crisis exposed fundamental vulnerabilities in interconnected banking systems, yet existing frameworks fail to integrate spatial propagation with network contagion mechanisms. This paper develops a unified spatial-network framework to analyze systemic risk dynamics, revealing three critical findings that challenge conventional wisdom. First, banking consolidation paradoxically increased systemic fragility: while bank numbers declined 47.3% from 2007 to…

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Network Contagion Dynamics in European Banking: A Navier-Stokes Framework for Systemic Risk Assessment

欧洲银行网络传染动态:基于 Navier–Stokes 的系统性风险评估框架

This paper develops a continuous functional framework for analyzing contagion dynamics in financial networks, extending the Navier-Stokes-based approach to network-structured spatial processes. We model financial distress propagation as a diffusion process on weighted networks, deriving a network diffusion equation from first principles that predicts contagion decay depends on the network's algebraic connectivity through the relation $κ= \sqrt{λ_2/D}$, where $λ_2$ is the…

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