Causal Inference of Blood Pressure Reduction and Coronary Heart Disease Risk in the Framingham Study
弗雷明汉研究中降血压与冠心病风险的因果推断
Standard cardiovascular risk calculators, including the Framingham Risk Score and the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations, estimate the conditional probability P(CHD | SysBP = s) rather than the interventional quantity P(CHD | do(SysBP = s)). When confounding is present, this distinction has direct clinical consequences: observational estimates may systematically overstate the absolute benefit of antihypertensive treatment. We applied Pearl's do-calculus to the Framingham Heart…