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利用随机森林估计与推断异质性处理效应AI 解读

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects that extends Breiman's widely used random forest algorithm. In the potential outcomes framework with unconfoundedness, we show that causal forests are pointwise consistent for the true…

未知样本选择概率下总体均值的形状约束部分识别AI 解读

A prevailing challenge in the biomedical and social sciences is to estimate a population mean from a sample obtained with unknown selection probabilities. Using a well-known ratio estimator, Aronow and Lee (2013) proposed a method for partial identification of the mean by allowing the unknown selection probabilities to vary arbitrarily between two fixed extreme values. In this paper, we show how to leverage auxiliary shape constraints on the population outcome distribution,…

平均处理效应估计：补充分析与尚存挑战AI 解读

There is a large literature on semiparametric estimation of average treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignment in settings with a fixed number of covariates. More recently attention has focused on settings with a large number of covariates. In this paper we extend lessons from the earlier literature to this new setting. We propose that in addition to reporting point estimates and standard errors, researchers report results from a number of supplementary…

随机实验中的高维回归调整AI 解读

We study the problem of treatment effect estimation in randomized experiments with high-dimensional covariate information, and show that essentially any risk-consistent regression adjustment can be used to obtain efficient estimates of the average treatment effect. Our results considerably extend the range of settings where high-dimensional regression adjustments are guaranteed to provide valid inference about the population average treatment effect. We then propose…

低秩矩阵估计的自助法正则化AI 解读

We develop a flexible framework for low-rank matrix estimation that allows us to transform noise models into regularization schemes via a simple bootstrap algorithm. Effectively, our procedure seeks an autoencoding basis for the observed matrix that is stable with respect to the specified noise model; we call the resulting procedure a stable autoencoder. In the simplest case, with an isotropic noise model, our method is equivalent to a classical singular value shrinkage…

随机森林的渐近理论AI 解读

Random forests have proven to be reliable predictive algorithms in many application areas. Not much is known, however, about the statistical properties of random forests. Several authors have established conditions under which their predictions are consistent, but these results do not provide practical estimates of random forest errors. In this paper, we analyze a random forest model based on subsampling, and show that random forest predictions are asymptotically normal…

回归树的自适应集中性及其在随机森林中的应用AI 解读

We study the convergence of the predictive surface of regression trees and forests. To support our analysis we introduce a notion of adaptive concentration for regression trees. This approach breaks tree training into a model selection phase in which we pick the tree splits, followed by a model fitting phase where we find the best regression model consistent with these splits. We then show that the fitted regression tree concentrates around the optimal predictor with the…

预测的高维渐近理论：岭回归与分类AI 解读

We provide a unified analysis of the predictive risk of ridge regression and regularized discriminant analysis in a dense random effects model. We work in a high-dimensional asymptotic regime where $p, n \to \infty$ and $p/n \to γ\in (0, \, \infty)$, and allow for arbitrary covariance among the features. For both methods, we provide an explicit and efficiently computable expression for the limiting predictive risk, which depends only on the spectrum of the feature-covariance…

密度反卷积的效率AI 解读

The density deconvolution problem involves recovering a target density g from a sample that has been corrupted by noise. From the perspective of Le Cam's local asymptotic normality theory, we show that non-parametric density deconvolution with Gaussian noise behaves similarly to a low-dimensional parametric problem that can easily be solved by maximum likelihood. This framework allows us to give a simple account of the statistical efficiency of density deconvolution and to…

序贯选择程序与错误发现率控制AI 解读

We consider a multiple hypothesis testing setting where the hypotheses are ordered and one is only permitted to reject an initial contiguous block, H_1,\dots,H_k, of hypotheses. A rejection rule in this setting amounts to a procedure for choosing the stopping point k. This setting is inspired by the sequential nature of many model selection problems, where choosing a stopping point or a model is equivalent to rejecting all hypotheses up to that point and none thereafter. We…

流式稀疏回归的统计性质AI 解读

We present a sparse analogue to stochastic gradient descent that is guaranteed to perform well under similar conditions to the lasso. In the linear regression setup with irrepresentable noise features, our algorithm recovers the support set of the optimal parameter vector with high probability, and achieves a statistically quasi-optimal rate of convergence of Op(k log(d)/T), where k is the sparsity of the solution, d is the number of features, and T is the number of training…

在线预测系统的反馈检测AI 解读

A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze predictor feedback detection as a causal inference problem, and introduce a local randomization scheme that can be used to detect non-linear feedback in…

极值子抽样：从块最大值到平滑尾部估计AI 解读

We study a new estimator for the tail index of a distribution in the Frechet domain of attraction that arises naturally by computing subsample maxima. This estimator is equivalent to taking a U-statistic over a Hill estimator with two order statistics. The estimator presents multiple advantages over the Hill estimator. In particular, it has asymptotically smooth sample paths as a function of the threshold k, making it considerably more stable than the Hill estimator. The…

重尾数据的半参数指数族建模AI 解读

We propose a semiparametric method for fitting the tail of a heavy-tailed population given a relatively small sample from that population and a larger sample from a related background population. We model the tail of the small sample as an exponential tilt of the better-observed large-sample tail, using a robust sufficient statistic motivated by extreme value theory. In particular, our method induces an estimator of the small-population mean, and we give theoretical and…

固定效应主成分分析的置信区域AI 解读

PCA is often used to visualize data when the rows and the columns are both of interest. In such a setting there is a lack of inferential methods on the PCA output. We study the asymptotic variance of a fixed-effects model for PCA, and propose several approaches to assessing the variability of PCA estimates: a method based on a parametric bootstrap, a new cell-wise jackknife, as well as a computationally cheaper approximation to the jackknife. We visualize the confidence…

随机森林的置信区间：刀切法与无穷小刀切法AI 解读

We study the variability of predictions made by bagged learners and random forests, and show how to estimate standard errors for these methods. Our work builds on variance estimates for bagging proposed by Efron (1992, 2012) that are based on the jackknife and the infinitesimal jackknife (IJ). In practice, bagged predictors are computed using a finite number B of bootstrap replicates, and working with a large B can be computationally expensive. Direct applications of…

作为自适应正则化的 Dropout 训练AI 解读

Dropout and other feature noising schemes control overfitting by artificially corrupting the training data. For generalized linear models, dropout performs a form of adaptive regularization. Using this viewpoint, we show that the dropout regularizer is first-order equivalent to an L2 regularizer applied after scaling the features by an estimate of the inverse diagonal Fisher information matrix. We also establish a connection to AdaGrad, an online learning algorithm, and find…