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含同期效应与指数族噪声的可识别马尔可夫切换模型AI 解读

Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables. Identifying latent regimes is challenging in the presence of…

分段仿射混合映射下可能退化高斯混合模型的可识别性AI 解读

Causal representation learning (CRL) aims to identify the underlying latent variables from high-dimensional observations, even when variables are dependent with each other. We study this problem for latent variables that follow a potentially degenerate Gaussian mixture distribution and that are only observed through the transformation via a piecewise affine mixing function. We provide a series of progressively stronger identifiability results for this challenging setting in…

统计学的挑战：因果关系与因果推断的十二项挑战AI 解读

Causality and causal inference have emerged as core research areas at the interface of modern statistics and domains including biomedical sciences, social sciences, computer science, and beyond. The field's inherently interdisciplinary nature -- particularly the central role of incorporating domain knowledge -- creates a rich and varied set of statistical challenges. Much progress has been made, especially in the last three decades, but there remain many open questions. Our…

风险评估的风险：用预测模型作治疗决策时的因果盲点AI 解读

Clinicians increasingly rely on prediction models to guide treatment choices. Most prediction models, however, are developed using observational data that include some patients who have already received the treatment the prediction model is meant to inform. Special attention to the causal role of those earlier treatments is required when interpreting the resulting predictions. We identify 'causal blind spots' in three common approaches to handling treatment when developing a…

线性高斯因果模型中的有限样本最优调整集AI 解读

Traditional covariate selection methods for causal inference focus on achieving unbiasedness and asymptotic efficiency. In many practical scenarios, researchers must estimate causal effects from observational data with limited sample sizes or in cases where covariates are difficult or costly to measure. Their needs might be better met by selecting adjustment sets that are finite sample-optimal in terms of mean squared error. In this paper, we aim to find the adjustment set…

学习线性结构因果模型的因果抽象AI 解读

The need for modelling causal knowledge at different levels of granularity arises in several settings. Causal Abstraction provides a framework for formalizing this problem by relating two Structural Causal Models at different levels of detail. Despite increasing interest in applying causal abstraction, e.g. in the interpretability of large machine learning models, the graphical and parametrical conditions under which a causal model can abstract another are not known.…

基于风险的决策：干预下序贯预测的估计目标AI 解读

Prediction models are used amongst others to inform medical decisions on interventions. Typically, individuals with high risks of adverse outcomes are advised to undergo an intervention while those at low risk are advised to refrain from it. Standard prediction models do not always provide risks that are relevant to inform such decisions: e.g., an individual may be estimated to be at low risk because similar individuals in the past received an intervention which lowered…

BISCUIT：从二元交互中学习因果表征AI 解读

Identifying the causal variables of an environment and how to intervene on them is of core value in applications such as robotics and embodied AI. While an agent can commonly interact with the environment and may implicitly perturb the behavior of some of these causal variables, often the targets it affects remain unknown. In this paper, we show that causal variables can still be identified for many common setups, e.g., additive Gaussian noise models, if the agent's…

CITRIS：从受干预的时间序列中识别因果表征AI 解读

Understanding the latent causal factors of a dynamical system from visual observations is considered a crucial step towards agents reasoning in complex environments. In this paper, we propose CITRIS, a variational autoencoder framework that learns causal representations from temporal sequences of images in which underlying causal factors have possibly been intervened upon. In contrast to the recent literature, CITRIS exploits temporality and observing intervention targets to…