Post-Model-Selection Statistical Inference with Interrupted Time Series Designs: An Evaluation of an Assault Weapons Ban in California
中断时间序列设计中的模型选择后推断:加州攻击性武器禁令评估
There have been many claims in the media and a bit of respectable research about the causes of variation in firearm sales. The challenges for causal inference can be quite daunting. This paper reports an analysis of daily handgun sales in California from 1996 through 2018 using an interrupted time series design and analysis. The design was introduced to social scientists in 1963 by Campbell and Stanley, analysis methods were proposed by Box and Tiao in 1975, and more recent…