Spatial Correlation in Weather Forecast Accuracy: A Functional Time Series Approach
天气预报精度的空间相关:函数型时间序列方法
A functional time series approach is proposed for investigating spatial correlation in daily maximum temperature forecast errors for 111 cities spread across the U.S. The modelling of spatial correlation is most fruitful for longer forecast horizons, and becomes less relevant as the forecast horizon shrinks towards zero. For 6-day-ahead forecasts, the functional approach uncovers interpretable regional spatial effects, and captures the higher variance observed in inland…