Driver Identification and PCA Augmented Selection Shrinkage Framework for Nordic System Price Forecasting
北欧电力系统价格预测:驱动因素识别与 PCA 增强的选择收缩框架
The System Price (SP) of the Nordic electricity market serves as a key reference for financial hedge contracts such as Electricity Price Area Differentials (EPADs) and other risk management instruments. Therefore, the identification of drivers and the accurate forecasting of SP are essential for market participants to design effective hedging strategies. This paper develops a systematic framework that combines interpretable drivers analysis with robust forecasting methods.…