Consistency of an Intercept-Shifted Synthetic-Control Estimator under Weighted Parallel Trends
加权平行趋势下截距平移合成控制估计量的一致性
The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in a staggered-adoption panel is estimated using an intercept-augmented synthetic-control (SCM) estimator. A weighted parallel trends plus an intercept shift, together with mild regularity on the weight vectors (non-degenerate dispersion) and expanding pre-treatment length, are sufficient for consistency allowing for heavy-tailed shocks. These conditions can be more interpretable than the autoregressive or low-rank factor…