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Estimands and estimation in trials with time trends

含时间趋势试验中的估计目标与估计方法

In platform trials, model-based approaches typically estimate treatment effects conditional on calendar time. However, scientific and regulatory interest often lies in treatment effects defined for a target population spanning multiple enrollment periods, requiring explicit consideration of how effects should be averaged across time. This raises two fundamental challenges. The first is the definition of the appropriate target estimand when combining data across multiple…

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On the inclusion of non-concurrent controls in platform trials with an interim analysis

含期中分析的平台试验如何纳入非同期对照

The analysis of platform trials can be enhanced by utilizing non-concurrent controls. Since including this data might also introduce bias in the treatment effect estimators if time trends are present, methods for incorporating non-concurrent controls adjusting for time have been proposed. However, so far their behavior has not been systematically investigated in platform trials that include interim analyses. To evaluate the impact of an interim analysis in trials utilizing…

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Covariate adjustment for linear models in estimating treatment effects in randomised clinical trials. Some useful theory to guide simulation

随机临床试验处理效应估计中的线性模型协变量调整:指导模拟的理论

Building on key papers that were published in special issues of Biometrics in 1957 and 1982 we propose and develop a three-aspect system for evaluating the effect of fitting covariates in the analysis of designed experiments, in particular randomised clinical trials. The three aspects are: first the effect on residual mean square error, second the effect on the variance inflation factor (VIF) and third the effect on second order precision. We concentrate, in particular, on…

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Treatment-control comparisons in platform trials including non-concurrent controls

纳入非同期对照的平台试验治疗比较

Shared controls in platform trials comprise concurrent and non-concurrent controls. For a given experimental arm, non-concurrent controls refer to data from patients allocated to the control arm before the arm enters the trial. The use of non-concurrent controls in the analysis is attractive because it may increase the trial's power of testing treatment differences while decreasing the sample size. However, since arms are added sequentially in the trial, randomization occurs…

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Simultaneous inference procedures for the comparison of multiple characteristics of two survival functions

比较两个生存函数多项特征的同时推断程序

Survival time is the primary endpoint of many randomized controlled trials, and a treatment effect is typically quantified by the hazard ratio under the assumption of proportional hazards. Awareness is increasing that in many settings this assumption is a-priori violated, e.g. due to delayed onset of drug effect. In these cases, interpretation of the hazard ratio estimate is ambiguous and statistical inference for alternative parameters to quantify a treatment effect is…

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