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超越预言机性质：近单位根解释变量下协整回归的自适应LASSOAI 解读

This paper derives new asymptotic results for the adaptive LASSO estimator in cointegrating regressions, allowing for uncertainty about whether the regressors are exact unit root processes. We study model selection probabilities, estimator consistency, and limiting distributions under standard and moving-parameter asymptotics. We further derive uniform convergence rates and the fastest local-to-zero rates detectable by the estimator under conservative and consistent tuning.…

基于残差的非参数协整方差比检验AI 解读

This paper derives asymptotic theory for Breitung's (2002, Journal of Econometrics 108, 343-363) nonparameteric variance ratio unit root test when applied to regression residuals. The test requires neither the specification of the correlation structure in the data nor the choice of tuning parameters. Compared with popular residuals-based no-cointegration tests, the variance ratio test is less prone to size distortions but has smaller local asymptotic power. However, this…

协整回归推断中的自助法辅助自标准化方法AI 解读

Traditional inference in cointegrating regressions requires tuning parameter choices to estimate a long-run variance parameter. Even in case these choices are "optimal", the tests are severely size distorted. We propose a novel self-normalization approach, which leads to a nuisance parameter free limiting distribution without estimating the long-run variance parameter directly. This makes our self-normalized test tuning parameter free and considerably less prone to size…