A Bayesian Dirichlet Auto-Regressive Moving Average Model for Forecasting Lead Times
用于收入确认提前期预测的贝叶斯 Dirichlet 自回归移动平均模型
Lead time data is compositional data found frequently in the hospitality industry. Hospitality businesses earn fees each day, however these fees cannot be recognized until later. For business purposes, it is important to understand and forecast the distribution of future fees for the allocation of resources, for business planning, and for staffing. Motivated by 5 years of daily fees data, we propose a new class of Bayesian time series models, a Bayesian Dirichlet…