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可行的数据融合：结构性非重叠下的约束联合估计AI 解读

Causal inference in modern largescale systems faces growing challenges, including highdimensional covariates, multi-valued treatments, massive observational (OBS) data, and limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) samples due to cost constraints. We formalize treatment-induced structural non-overlap and show that, under this regime, commonly used weighted fusion methods provably fail to satisfy randomized identifying restrictions.To address this issue,we propose a…

结合观察与随机数据的预算约束主动实验：处理效应估计AI 解读

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to data-driven decision-making, yet industrial applications often face a fundamental tension between limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) budgets and abundant but biased observational data collected under historical targeting policies. Although observational logs offer the advantage of scale, they inherently suffer from severe policyinduced imbalance and overlap violations, rendering standalone estimation unreliable.…

基于置换不变表征的组合处理正交增量效应学习AI 解读

We study uplift estimation for combinatorial treatments. Uplift measures the pure incremental causal effect of an intervention (e.g., sending a coupon or a marketing message) on user behavior, modeled as a conditional individual treatment effect. Many real-world interventions are combinatorial: a treatment is a policy that specifies context-dependent action distributions rather than a single atomic label. Although recent work considers structured treatments, most methods…

数据分布变化流中的持续因果效应估计AI 解读

Causal effect estimation has been widely used in marketing optimization. The framework of an uplift model followed by a constrained optimization algorithm is popular in practice. To enhance performance in the online environment, the framework needs to be improved to address the complexities caused by temporal dataset shift. This paper focuses on capturing the dataset shift from user behavior and domain distribution changing over time. We propose an Incremental Causal Effect…

广义因果森林：在线市场中的异质性处理效应估计AI 解读

Uplift modeling is a rapidly growing approach that utilizes causal inference and machine learning methods to directly estimate the heterogeneous treatment effects, which has been widely applied to various online marketplaces to assist large-scale decision-making in recent years. The existing popular models, like causal forest (CF), are limited to either discrete treatments or posing parametric assumptions on the outcome-treatment relationship that may suffer model…