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有限状态嵌套 Markov 模型的递归头几何与无序有效推断AI 解读

Exploiting the equality restrictions that nested Markov models encode requires their tangent-space geometry. For strictly positive finite-state models on arbitrary acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), we differentiate the recursive-head chart and prove that the range of its score map is the full tangent space. Intrinsic-set coordinate blocks form an algebraic direct sum, blocks of distinct districts are orthogonal, and the resulting Gram projection needs neither…

存在中间事件时利用多状态数据估计路径处理效应AI 解读

During clinical trials evaluating a drug's effect on a survival endpoint, intermediate events often occur in addition to the primary event. The treatment can exert its effect on the primary endpoint along multiple pathways through intermediate events. Assumptions for identifying mediation effects, such as sequential ignorability in natural effects or the dismissible components condition in separable effects, fail because intermediate events act as treatment-induced…

最优策略可能不唯一时的半参数离策略价值推断AI 解读

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) constructs confidence intervals for the value of a target policy using data generated under a different behavior policy. Most existing inference methods focus on fixed target policies and may fail when the target policy is estimated as optimal, particularly when the optimal policy is non-unique or nearly deterministic. We study inference for the value of optimal policies in Markov decision processes. In an auxiliary augmented transition-sampling…

含中介变量的双重差分AI 解读

Causal mediation analysis is a powerful tool for disentangling the total effect of a treatment into its direct effect on the outcome and its indirect effect mediated through an intermediate variable. However, in observational studies, confounding between treatment and potential outcomes typically renders the total and natural effects non-identifiable. In this work, we advance mediation analysis within the difference-in-differences framework. Under a mediator-adjusted…

多个中介变量下因果效应的有效推断AI 解读

This paper provides robust estimators and efficient inference of causal effects involving multiple interacting mediators. Most existing works either impose a linear model assumption among the mediators or are restricted to handle conditionally independent mediators given the exposure. To overcome these limitations, we define causal and individual mediation effects in a general setting, and employ a semiparametric framework to develop quadruply robust estimators for these…

次伽马噪声度序列下网络模型的渐近性质AI 解读

For the differential privacy under the sub-Gamma noise, we derive the asymptotic properties of a class of network models with binary values with a general link function. In this paper, we release the degree sequences of the binary networks under a general noisy mechanism with the discrete Laplace mechanism as a special case. We establish the asymptotic result including both consistency and asymptotically normality of the parameter estimator when the number of parameters goes…