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永远不晚：潜在结果框架的完全随机化更新AI 解读

In the classic potential outcome framework, the local average treatment effect (LATE) and its identification via an instrumental variable are stated in a deterministic setting at the individual level: each individual has settled potential outcomes such as ``cured if treated''. Several authors have proposed working instead with \emph{stochastic} potential outcomes -- counterfactual probabilities of the form ``the chance of being cured if treated'' -- but the integration of…

反事实逻辑与因果推断的认识论AI 解读

The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics recognized an epistemology of causal inference based on the Rubin causal model (Rubin 1974), which merits broader attention in philosophy. This model, in fact, presupposes a logical principle of counterfactuals, Conditional Excluded Middle (CEM), the locus of a pivotal debate between Stalnaker (1968) and Lewis (1973) on the semantics of counterfactuals. Proponents of CEM should recognize that this connection points to a new argument for CEM…