Pseudo-Incrementality Testing: Measuring Advertising Lift from Naturally Occurring Interventions
伪增量检验:利用自然发生的干预衡量广告增量效应
We develop a method for measuring the incremental effect of advertising when randomized exper- iments are unavailable. Firms generate abrupt interventions in their own marketing as a byproduct of operations: budgets are cut, channels launch, programs pause. We propose a two-stage proce- dure that treats these events as quasi-experiments. The first stage discovers and dates interventions by exact Bayesian run-length inference on marketing activity series. The second stage…