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Online Detection of Changes in Moment-Based Projections: When to Retrain Deep Learners or Update Portfolios?

基于矩的投影变化在线检测:何时重训深度学习模型或调整组合

Training deep learning neural networks often requires massive amounts of computational ressources. We propose to sequentially monitor network predictions to trigger retraining only if the predictions are no longer valid. This can reduce drastically computational costs and opens a door to green deep learning. Our approach is based on the relationship to projected second moments monitoring, a problem also arising in other areas such as computational finance. Various open-end…

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On the Weak Convergence of the Function-Indexed Sequential Empirical Process and its Smoothed Analogue under Nonstationarity

非平稳条件下函数索引序贯经验过程及其平滑版本的弱收敛

We study the sequential empirical process indexed by general function classes and its smoothed set-indexed analogue. Sufficient conditions for asymptotic equicontinuity are provided for nonstationary arrays of time series. This yields comprehensive general results that are applicable to various notions of dependence, which is exemplified in detail for nonstationary $α$-mixing series. Especially, we obtain the weak convergence of the sequential process under essentially the…

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On Extreme Value Asymptotics of Projected Sample Covariances in High Dimensions with Applications in Finance and Convolutional Networks

高维投影样本协方差的极值渐近理论及金融与卷积网络应用

Maximum-type statistics of certain functions of the sample covariance matrix of high-dimensional vector time series are studied to statistically confirm or reject the null hypothesis that a data set has been collected under normal conditions. The approach generalizes the case of the maximal deviation of the sample autocovariances function from its assumed values. Within a linear time series framework it is shown that Gumbel-type extreme value asymptotics holds true. As…

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Projection inference for high-dimensional covariance matrices with structured shrinkage targets

结构化收缩目标下高维协方差矩阵的投影推断

Analyzing large samples of high-dimensional data under dependence is a challenging statistical problem as long time series may have change points, most importantly in the mean and the marginal covariances, for which one needs valid tests. Inference for large covariance matrices is especially difficult due to noise accumulation, resulting in singular estimates and poor power of related tests. The singularity of the sample covariance matrix in high dimensions can be overcome…

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Sequential Gaussian approximation for nonstationary time series in high dimensions

高维非平稳时间序列的序贯高斯近似

Gaussian couplings of partial sum processes are derived for the high-dimensional regime $d=o(n^{1/3})$. The coupling is derived for sums of independent random vectors and subsequently extended to nonstationary time series. Our inequalities depend explicitly on the dimension and on a measure of nonstationarity, and are thus also applicable to arrays of random vectors. To enable high-dimensional statistical inference, a feasible Gaussian approximation scheme is proposed.…

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