Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read’s “Narrative Restrictions and Proxies”
评 Giacomini、Kitagawa 与 Read 的《叙事限制与代理变量》AI 解读 ↓
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评 Giacomini、Kitagawa 与 Read 的《叙事限制与代理变量》AI 解读 ↓
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In a series of recent studies, Raffaella Giacomini and Toru Kitagawa have developed an innovative methodological approach to estimating sign-identified structural VAR models that seeks to build a bridge between Bayesian and frequentist approaches in the literature. Their latest papers with Matthew Read contain thought-provoking new insights about modeling narrative restrictions in sign-identified structural VAR models. My discussion puts their contribution into the context of Giacomini and Kitagawa’s broader research agenda and relates it to the larger literature on estimating structural VAR models subject to sign restrictions. It is useful to start with the conventional Bayesian approach to estimating sign-identified VAR models, which has remained the most widely approach used by practitioners for answering substantive economic questions. This approach is based on a uniform prior for the orthogonal matrix Q (known as a Haar prior) and a Gaussian-inverse Wishart prior for the reduced-form parameters A and , which denote the slope parameters and error covariance matrix, respectively (see, e.g., Rubio-Ramirez, Waggoner, and Zha 2010; Arias, RubioRamirez, and Waggoner 2018; Antolin-Diaz and Rubio Ramirez 2018).