Generalized instrumental inequalities: testing the instrumental variable independence assumption
广义工具变量不等式:检验工具变量独立性假设AI 解读 ↓
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Summary This paper proposes a new set of testable implications for the instrumental variable independence assumption for discrete treatment, but unrestricted outcome and instruments: generalized instrumental inequalities. When outcome and treatment are both binary, but instruments are unrestricted, we show that the generalized instrumental inequalities are necessary and sufficient to detect all observable violations of the instrumental variable independence assumption. To test the generalized instrumental inequalities, we propose an approach combining a sample splitting procedure and an inference method for intersection bounds. This idea allows one to easily implement the test using existing Stata packages. We apply our proposed strategy to assess the validity of the instrumental variable independence assumption for various instruments used in the returns to college literature.
利用工具变量推断广义主分层条件下的处理效应
We propose a general approach to inference for a broad class of models that arise in the analysis of treatment effects with discrete-valued treatments and instruments and a general-valued outcome. In addition to instrument exogeneity, the main substantive assumption in our class of models rules out certain response types by assuming that they occur with probability zero. Here, the response type refers to the vector of potential outcomes and potential treatments, and we refer…
部分识别处理效应的广义信仰推断框架
Over the past two decades, there has been renewed interest in fiducial inference, a statistical framework originally proposed by R. A. Fisher in the 1930s. Existing contributions, however, have largely focused on point-identified models, where the parameter vector is uniquely determined by the joint distribution of the observables and the model assumptions. This paper develops a unified fiducial inference procedure for partially identified models, thereby extending the…
诚实置信区间的局部渐近功效
Confidence intervals that are conservative against an untestable bias, called bias-aware or honest, are now standard in DiD, IV, RD, and factor-model settings. This paper characterises the local power of the tests they induce. Power is governed by the rate of the bias bound relative to the sampling rate, giving three regimes: when the bound vanishes faster than the standard error, conservatism is asymptotically free; when the two are of the same order it costs a bounded,…
类别型工具变量模型:刻画、部分识别与统计推断
We study categorical instrumental variable (IV) models with instrument, treatment and outcome taking finitely many values. We derive a simple closed-form characterization of the set of joint distributions of potential outcomes that are compatible with a given observed data distribution in terms of a minimal set of inequalities. These inequalities unify several different IV models defined by versions of the independence and exclusion restriction assumptions. They lead to…
正交化合成控制
When conducting inference for the average treatment effect on the treated with a Synthetic Control Estimator, the vector of control weights is a nuisance parameter that is often constrained, high-dimensional, and may be only partially identified even when the average treatment effect on the treated is point-identified. All three of these features of a nuisance parameter can lead to failure of asymptotic normality for the estimate of the parameter of interest when using…
条件线性规划聚合值的自适应估计
We develop a covariate-assisted approach to partially identified parameters that are solutions to an under-identified system of linear equations with known coefficients. Examples include bounds on treatment effects, models of unemployment with state dependence, choice-theoretic models of IV, and random utility models. The boundary (i.e., support function) of the proposed identified set is represented as an average of intersections of regression functions, aggregated over the…