Bivariate Distribution Regression; Theory, Estimation and an Application to Intergenerational Mobility
二元分布回归：理论、估计及代际流动应用AI 解读 ↓
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二元分布回归：理论、估计及代际流动应用
- 研究问题
- 控制协变量后，如何估计两个结果变量的联合分布及其剩余依赖，并分解群体间联合分布和流动转移矩阵的差异？
- 方法与思路
- 作者基于条件联合分布的局部高斯表示实施二元分布回归，构造依赖相关泛函，并将群体差异分解为构成、边际和排序效应。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称推导所估泛函的性质及推断程序，并利用父母与子女收入的联合分布和反事实，分析代际流动及儿女转移矩阵差异。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对局部高斯表示的参数化、依赖泛函及分解定义，尤其注意反事实构造如何支持对可观测与不可观测因素的解释。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，不能据此认定已同行评审或期刊接收；摘要未说明推断条件，分布分解也不能仅据摘要认定具有因果含义。
原文摘要
We employ distribution regression (DR) to estimate the joint distribution of two outcome variables conditional on chosen covariates. While Bivariate Distribution Regression (BDR) is useful in a variety of settings, it is particularly valuable when some dependence between the outcomes persists after accounting for the impact of the covariates. Our analysis relies on a result from Chernozhukov et al. (2018) which shows that any conditional joint distribution has a local Gaussian representation. We describe how BDR can be implemented and present some associated functionals of interest. As modeling the unexplained dependence is a key feature of BDR, we focus on functionals related to this dependence. We decompose the difference between the joint distributions for different groups into composition, marginal and sorting effects. We provide a similar decomposition for the transition matrices which describe how location in the distribution in one of the outcomes is associated with location in the other. Our theoretical contributions are the derivation of the properties of these estimated functionals and appropriate procedures for inference. Our empirical illustration focuses on intergenerational mobility. Using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics data, we model the joint distribution of parents' and children's earnings. By comparing the observed distribution with constructed counterfactuals, we isolate the impact of observable and unobservable factors on the observed joint distribution. We also evaluate the forces responsible for the difference between the transition matrices of sons' and daughters'.