Satellites turn “concrete”: Tracking cement with satellite data and neural networks
用卫星数据与神经网络追踪水泥生产AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确使用卫星指数即时预测水泥行业生产和建筑部门活动,直接对应经济活动预测与即时预测。
用卫星数据与神经网络追踪水泥生产AI 解读 ↓
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This paper exploits daily infrared images taken from satellites to track economic activity in advanced and emerging countries. We first develop a framework to read, clean, and exploit satellite images. Our algorithm uses the laws of physics (Planck's law) and machine learning to detect the heat produced by cement plants in activity. This allows us to monitor in real-time whether a cement plant is working. Using this on around 1,000 plants, we construct a satellite-based index. We show that using this satellite index outperforms benchmark models and alternative indicators for nowcasting the production of the cement industry as well as the activity in the construction sector. Comparing across methods, neural networks appear to yield more accurate predictions as they allow to exploit the granularity of our dataset. Overall, combining satellite images and machine learning can help policymakers to take informed and swift economic policy decisions by nowcasting accurately and in real-time economic activity.
跨空间时间序列的预测驱动推断
The following motif is common in spatiotemporal settings: we have a sequence of covariate and label pairs observed for a relatively short, recent time period. We have access to unlabeled covariates over a longer time period. Data is observed over many spatial locations. For instance, crop yield might be observed over a large geographical area for recent years, but weather data (which is informative about crop yield) is available for a much longer period. The goal is to…
时间序列基础模型用于农业预测的潜力:商品价格证据
Forecasting agricultural markets remains challenging due to nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks, and sparse data. A long-standing belief holds that simple time-series methods outperform more advanced alternatives. This paper provides the first systematic evidence that this belief no longer holds with modern time-series foundation models (TSFMs). Using USDA ERS monthly commodity price data from 1997-2025, we evaluate 17 forecasting approaches across four model classes,…
用非线性因子扩展贝叶斯 VAR 的灵活方法
This paper proposes a vector autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically lessens the risk of misspecification. Second, the use of factor methods ensures that departures from linearity are modeled parsimoniously. In particular, they exhibit functional pooling where a small number of nonlinear factors are used to…
超越点预测:时间序列与时空数据概率预测综述
Probabilistic forecasting is central to decision-making under uncertainty, yet its methodological landscape has become increasingly fragmented across temporal and spatiotemporal forecasting, statistical modeling, machine learning, and deep generative modeling. This survey develops a unified perspective by organizing probabilistic forecasting methods according to where and how uncertainty is introduced into the forecasting pipeline. Our taxonomy connects model-agnostic…
鞅持续触发时:真实预测流中的随时有效门控
Machine learning systems are increasingly corrected while they run, and the decision of when to intervene is increasingly delegated to statistical monitors. Anytime-valid inference promises evidence that can be acted on at any moment, exactly the guarantee this setting needs, and it is moving from theory into deployed monitoring. Conformal test martingales are the change-detection instrument, and Ville's inequality caps their false-alarm probability on exchangeable data. The…
局部爆炸性时间序列的尾部感知密度预测:神经网络方法
Mixed causal--noncausal (anticipative) models capture locally explosive dynamics and provide economically meaningful probabilities of continuation and collapse, but forecasting with them remains computationally difficult. We develop a two-stage framework that estimates such an ARMA model and then learns its predictive density using a Mixture Density Network with skewed-t components, tail-aware training weights, and post-hoc calibration. The approach accommodates the heavy…