Robust Permutation Tests in Linear Instrumental Variables Regression
线性工具变量回归中的稳健置换检验AI 解读 ↓
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This paper develops permutation versions of identification-robust tests in linear instrumental variables (IV) regression. Unlike the existing randomization and rank-based tests in which independence between the instruments and the error terms is assumed, the permutation Anderson- Rubin (AR), Lagrange Multiplier (LM) and Conditional Likelihood Ratio (CLR) tests are asymptotically similar and robust to conditional heteroskedasticity under standard exclusion restriction i.e. the orthogonality between the instruments and the error terms. Moreover, when the instruments are independent of the structural error term, the permutation AR tests are exact, hence robust to heavy tails. As such, these tests share the strengths of the rank-based tests and the wild bootstrap AR tests. Numerical illustrations corroborate the theoretical results.
Two frequent approaches for identifying structural VARs are external instruments, which carry economic content but are often weak, and non-Gaussianity of the shocks, which provides statistical identification but carries no economic meaning. We combine the two strategies in a single generalized method of moments framework. This hybrid approach point-identifies the target shocks while also identifying the non-target shocks up to sign and ordering. Under suitable rank…
线性工具变量回归的稳健置换检验
This paper develops permutation versions of identification-robust tests in linear instrumental variables (IV) regression. Unlike the existing randomization and rank-based tests in which independence between the instruments and the error terms is assumed, the permutation Anderson- Rubin (AR), Lagrange Multiplier (LM) and Conditional Likelihood Ratio (CLR) tests are asymptotically similar and robust to conditional heteroskedasticity under standard exclusion restriction i.e.…
时间序列中的动态局部平均处理效应
This paper discusses identification, estimation, and inference on dynamic local average treatment effects (LATEs) in instrumental variables (IVs) settings. First, we show that compliers--observations whose treatment status is affected by the instrument--can be identified individually in time series data using smoothness assumptions and local comparisons of treatment assignments. Second, we show that this result enables not only better interpretability of IV estimates but…
弱识别与少量聚类下工具变量分位数回归的梯度野生自助法
We study the gradient wild bootstrap-based inference for instrumental variable quantile regressions in the framework of a small number of large clusters in which the number of clusters is viewed as fixed, and the number of observations for each cluster diverges to infinity. For the Wald inference, we show that our wild bootstrap Wald test, with or without studentization using the cluster-robust covariance estimator (CRVE), controls size asymptotically up to a small error as…
少簇与弱识别工具变量回归的野生自助法推断
We study the wild bootstrap inference for instrumental variable regressions under an alternative asymptotic framework that the number of independent clusters is fixed, the size of each cluster diverges to infinity, and the within cluster dependence is sufficiently weak. We first show that the wild bootstrap Wald test controls size asymptotically up to a small error as long as the parameters of endogenous variables are strongly identified in at least one of the clusters.…
用野生自助法改善聚类工具变量模型推断的两个应用
Summary Microeconomic data often have within‐cluster dependence, which affects standard error estimation and inference. When the number of clusters is small, asymptotic tests can be severely oversized. In the instrumental variables (IV) model, the potential presence of weak instruments further complicates hypothesis testing. We use wild bootstrap methods to improve inference in two empirical applications with these characteristics. Building from estimating equations and…