Stabilization without Inclusive Development: Neoliberalism, Economic Liberalization, Poverty, and Inequality in Bolivia
稳定化未带来包容性发展：玻利维亚自由化、贫困与不平等AI 解读 ↓
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稳定化未带来包容性发展：玻利维亚自由化、贫困与不平等
- 研究问题
- 玻利维亚的新自由主义改革在稳定恶性通胀的同时，是否加重了贫困和不平等，其影响与拉美总体经验有何差异？
- 方法与思路
- 作者结合改革历史与多源指标，以滞后的区域剔除自身政策扩散作为工具变量，并允许玻利维亚的效应异于区域平均。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要报告自由化指标提高与玻利维亚贫困及不平等上升相联系，加入出口结构控制后方向仍相同，但因果解释有条件。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对政策指标的历史可比性、工具变量相关性与排除限制、区域异质性的估计方式，以及调查指标协调和控制变量处理。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，同行评审与期刊接收未核验；摘要明确因果解释依赖排除限制，未提供其充分证据或完整推断结果。
原文摘要
This article reconstructs the economic and social history of Bolivian neoliberalism and evaluates whether economic liberalization reduced or increased poverty and inequality in Bolivia. The historical argument is that the Bolivian neoliberal cycle was not a single event but a layered sequence: hyperinflation and emergency stabilization, the 1985 New Economic Policy, labor displacement and mining restructuring, second-generation reform in the 1990s, capitalization, decentralized state restructuring, commodity dependence, and the social conflicts that culminated in the collapse of the party system. The empirical contribution is to integrate macroeconomic indicators, economic-freedom indices, poverty and inequality series, IMF and financial-reform data, commodity and disaster controls, Bolivian export aggregates, and harmonized historical survey indicators. The preferred design is a heterogeneous instrumental-variables model that instruments domestic liberalization with lagged regional leave-one-out policy diffusion and allows Bolivia to differ from the Latin American average. The central estimate is that a 10-point increase in the Heritage economic-freedom score is associated, for Bolivia, with approximately +4.46 percentage points of poverty at the USD 4.20/day line, +3.61 percentage points at the USD 3/day line, +7.40 percentage points at the USD 8.30/day line, and +3.91 Gini points. These results remain socially regressive in sign after adding export-structure controls to the poverty specifications, although the causal interpretation remains conditional on the exclusion restriction. The article therefore advances a qualified conclusion: Bolivian neoliberalism stabilized hyperinflation, but the historically specific liberalization package appears to have increased social vulnerability and inequality rather than producing inclusive development.