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分类依据与纠错

AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确分析两个价格序列、时间效应与日价格相关性,因此与时间序列方向直接相关。

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代码、数据与补充材料

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关注这篇论文的作者
R. L. Anderson

两个市场生猪价格分析中的方差分量应用

研究问题
如何分析两个市场生猪价格的比值及其变动来源,并在日价格存在相关性、误差方差具有复合结构时开展检验?
方法与思路
作者用方差分析与 F 检验分析按月汇总的价格比值,采用 Smith–Satterthwaite 方法近似复合误差的自由度。
材料陈述的贡献
摘要称比值分析中多数与年份有关的交互作用及月份固定效应显著,并讨论方差分量标准误与后续采样计划。
阅读关注点
应核对原始日价格与月汇总的关系、相关性对检验的影响,以及复合误差、自由度近似和方差分量估计的处理。
阅读边界
仅据版本未注明的索引摘要;作者指出价格缺乏独立性是重要缺陷,摘要未提供检验数值,替代模型的符号也需核对原文。

原文摘要

This paper discusses various methods of analyzing the ratios of the daily hog prices at Cincinnati and Louisville and compares the results obtained with those previously given for the differences between the two price series. The data consisted of the prices for each of two weight classes on each the five complete market days of the week (Monday through Friday) averaged for each month throughout the period 1937-1941. Price ratios were used because of the high correlation which seemed to exist between the price differences and the price level. The analysis of variance was used to make statements about the consistency of the results. The paper discusses the assumptions behind the analysis of variance and how well these assumptions are met with these data. In general, the most serious defect in making tests of significance is a lack of independence due to the intracorrelations existing between daily prices. The F-test was used to test for the existence of consistent fixed effects and to determine significant sources of random variation. Most of these tests were complicated by the composite nature of the error variances. An approximation method of H. Fairfield Smith and F. E. Satterthwaite was used to approximate the error degrees of freedom in such cases. Mention is made of a suggested new model which uses x 2 as a test criterion instead of F. For the ratios, most of the interactions with years were significant; also, the month fixed effects. A brief discussion is also included of the problem of estimating the standard errors of the variance components, and of the uses of these variance components in formulating plans for future collection of data.

笔记与分组
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