Transmission of Pneumococcal Carriage in Families: A Latent Markov Process Model for Binary Longitudinal Data
家庭内肺炎链球菌携带传播：二元纵向数据的潜在马尔可夫过程模型AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要明确使用家庭成员的重复观测，并建模成员间相互依赖的携带传播，对应面板数据与干扰问题。
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家庭内肺炎链球菌携带传播：二元纵向数据的潜在马尔可夫过程模型
- 研究问题
- 如何从家庭成员间歇观测的二元携带状态，估计肺炎链球菌的获得与清除速率，并区分家庭传播和社区来源？
- 方法与思路
- 作者以条件独立假设构造潜在传播过程，用贝叶斯数据增广补充未观测状态，再通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛探索联合后验。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称，幼儿携带获得速率随年龄增加，两岁以下儿童携带时间较长；模型估计也显示家庭内传播具有较高强度。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对条件独立假设、连续传播过程与观测状态的对应关系，以及家庭和社区来源如何区分、后验不确定性如何报告。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据 OpenAlex 索引摘要，稿件版本未注明；传播速率的可识别条件和模型敏感性未说明，不能推断刊本变化。
原文摘要
We present a Bayesian data augmentation model to estimate acquisition and clearance rates of carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (Pnc) bacteria. The panel observation data comprise 10 measurements of Pnc carriage (carrier/noncarrier of the bacteria) in all members of 97 families with young children over a period of 2 years. Using natural conditional independence assumptions, a transmission model is constructed for the unobserved dependent binary processes of the augmented data. The model explicitly considers carriage transmission within the family and carriage acquisition from the surrounding community. The joint posterior of the model parameters and the augmented data is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The analysis shows that in young children the rate of acquiring carriage of three common Pnc serotypes increases with age. In children less than 2 years old, the duration of carriage is longer than in older family members. Asymptomatic Pnc carriage is found highly transmittable between members of the same family. In young children, the estimated rate of acquiring carriage from a family member carrying Pnc is more than 20-fold to that from acquiring it from the community.