Implementation of Estimating Function-Based Inference Procedures With Markov Chain Monte Carlo Samplers
利用 MCMC 实现基于估计函数的推断AI 解读 ↓
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利用 MCMC 实现基于估计函数的推断AI 解读 ↓
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Under a semiparametric or nonparametric setting, inferences about the unknown parameter are often made based on a nonsmooth estimating function. Resampling methods are quite handy for obtaining good approximations to the distribution of the consistent estimator when the estimating equation and its resampled counterparts are not difficult to solve numerically. In this article we propose a simple, flexible procedure that provides such approximations through the standard Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler without solving any equations. More generally, the procedure may locate all possible roots of the estimating equation and provides an approximation to the distribution of each root. We illustrate our proposed procedure extensively with three examples and evaluate its performance comprehensively through a simulation study.
We study nonparametric inference for a continuous-treatment causal dose-response curve and its first derivative under unmeasured confounding, using treatment- and outcome-inducing proxies. We establish a proximal doubly robust pseudo-outcome whose conditional mean given treatment equals the dose-response curve whenever either bridge function is correctly specified. Their (smoothed) efficient influence function representations lead to cross-fitted local-polynomial estimators…
The bootstrap is widely used to construct confidence intervals but may perform poorly for some estimators. We consider semiparametric estimators that use cross-validation to estimate nuisance pa- rameters and can be computationally expensive in large datasets. We illustrate potential problems with bootstrapping with replacement when cross-validation is used and extend the cheap bootstrap confidence interval to subsampling without replacement for asymptotically linear…
双重差分与合成控制的结合:双重稳健识别和估计
Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Synthetic Control (SC) are widely used methods for causal inference in panel data, each with distinct strengths and limitations. We propose a novel method for short-panel causal inference that integrates the advantages of both approaches. Our method delivers a doubly robust identification strategy for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) under either of two non-nested assumptions: parallel trends or a group-level SC condition.…
贝叶斯加性回归树的稳健半参数推断
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) provide a class of flexible nonparametric regressions in machine learning. Their rich tree-based structure can generate non-Donsker classes of regression functions. We study posterior inference for the population mean under missing at random. We derive a new Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem showing that even a one-step posterior based on BART and Bayesian-bootstrap reweighting retains a non-negligible bias term in the non-Donsker…
存在少报的有序选择模型中的变化中的变化
We develop a Difference-in-Differences framework for discrete, ordered outcomes subject to underreporting. Such outcomes commonly arise in self-reported surveys on socially undesirable or stigmatized behaviors, where respondents may conceal their true behavior. For a discrete Changes-in-Changes model that is shown to admit an equivalent threshold-crossing representation, we derive nonparametric bounds for the counterfactual and factual outcome distributions as well as for…
存在低报的有序选择模型中的变化中变化方法
We develop a Difference-in-Differences framework for discrete, ordered outcomes subject to underreporting. Such outcomes commonly arise in self-reported surveys on socially undesirable or stigmatized behaviors, where respondents may conceal their true behavior. For a discrete Changes-in-Changes model that is shown to admit an equivalent threshold-crossing representation, we derive nonparametric bounds for the counterfactual and factual outcome distributions as well as for…