Efficient and flexible estimation of natural mediation effects under intermediate confounding and monotonicity constraints
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中间混杂与单调性约束下自然中介效应的高效灵活估计
- 研究问题
- 存在处理诱发的中介—结果混杂时，何种单调性限制能够支持自然直接与间接效应的识别，并实现灵活估计？
- 方法与思路
- 作者在处理与处理诱发混杂变量之间的单调性假设下建立效率理论，提出非参数多重稳健估计量，并讨论鼓励设计。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称论文发展自然中介效应的效率理论与多重稳健估计，通过模拟展示有限样本性质，并应用于住房券随机分配研究。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对单调性及其他识别条件、效率界推导、多重稳健性涉及的模型组合，以及实际依从行为是否支持单调性解释。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，同行评审及期刊接收未经核实；摘要未列全部识别条件，不能把单调性视为消除中间混杂的充分保证。
原文摘要
Natural direct and indirect effects are mediational estimands that decompose the average treatment effect and describe how outcomes would be affected by contrasting levels of a treatment through changes induced in mediator values (in the case of the indirect effect) or not through induced changes in the mediator values (in the case of the direct effect). Natural direct and indirect effects are not generally point-identifiable in the presence of a treatment-induced confounder, however they may still be identified if one is willing to assume monotonicity between a treatment and the treatment-induced confounder. We argue that this assumption may be reasonable in the relatively common encouragement-design trial setting where intervention is randomized treatment assignment and the treatment-induced confounder is whether or not treatment was actually taken/adhered to. We develop efficiency theory for the natural direct and indirect effects under this monotonicity assumption, and use it to propose a nonparametric, multiply robust estimator. We demonstrate the finite sample properties of this estimator using a simulation study, and apply it to data from the Moving to Opportunity Study to estimate the natural direct and indirect effects of being randomly assigned to receive a Section 8 housing voucher -- the most common form of federal housing assistance -- on risk developing any mood or externalizing disorder among adolescent boys, possibly operating through various school and community characteristics.