A General Resampling Scheme for Triangular Arrays of $\alpha$-Mixing Random Variables with Application to the Problem of Spectral Density Estimation
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In 1989 Kunsch introduced a modified bootstrap and jackknife for a statistic which is used to estimate a parameter of the $m$-dimensional joint distribution of stationary and $\alpha$-mixing observations. The modification amounts to resampling whole blocks of consecutive observations, or deleting whole blocks one at a time. Liu and Singh independently proposed (in 1988) the same technique for observations that are $m$-dependent. However, many time-series statistics, notably estimators of the spectral density function, involve parameters of the whole (infinite-dimensional) joint distribution and, hence, do not fit in this framework. In this report we generalize the "moving blocks" resampling scheme of Kunsch and Liu and Singh; a still modified version of the nonparametric bootstrap and jackknife is seen to be valid for general linear statistics that are asymptotically normal and consistent for a parameter of the whole joint distribution. We then apply this result to the problem of estimation of the spectral density.
检测Copula结构变化的平滑检验方法
This paper develops novel smooth tests for structural changes in the innovation copula of multivariate dynamic models. We characterize deviations from copula constancy through a collection of generalized Fourier coefficients and test their joint significance. Under the null hypothesis, estimation of the dynamic parameters and the unknown marginals has no first-order estimation effect on the proposed statistics. Consequently, the feasible tests based on estimated residuals…
通过条件中心化进行非线性 Granger 因果的 RKHS 推断
Granger causality is commonly formulated through linear prediction in vector autoregressive models, limiting its ability to detect nonlinear predictive relationships. We propose a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS)-based test for nonlinear Granger non-causality in conditional mean for nonlinear autoregressive processes. The key idea is a conditional-centering decomposition of the target regression function into an own-history component and an orthogonal component…
SCAN:通过自适应非参数推断依次检测变点
Modern time series are often long, serially dependent, and non-stationary. Existing change-point methods either target specific changes or become computationally intensive when using nonparametric costs on long series. Many also require thresholds to be carefully calibrated under serial dependence. We introduce SCAN, an offline method for detecting multiple distributional change-points in long, serially dependent univariate time series. SCAN compares adjacent windows using…
基于条件状态与轨迹类比的多变量概率预测
We propose Conditional Regime Analog Forecasting with Trajectories (CRAFT), a nonparametric framework for multivariate probabilistic time-series prediction. The method constructs paired backward and forward trajectory profiles from cumulative multi-horizon returns, learns recurrent low-dimensional regime labels in both spaces using singular value decomposition, change-point segmentation, and segment clustering, and estimates a backward-to-forward conditional regime…
递归非线性脉冲响应函数的无带宽推断
Recursive nonlinear impulse responses require an estimated innovation law whenever the impact shock is normalized by innovation ranks and future innovations are integrated out. The closest semiparametric recursive construction in the literature estimates the relevant innovation quantile functions smoothly and discusses a direct empirical-residual implementation without developing its complete first-order inference theory. We tackle this gap in a finite-dimensional nonlinear…
通过预过滤筛式自助法校正函数型时间序列长记忆估计偏差
We investigate a bias correction procedure based on sieve bootstrapping to estimate the long-memory parameter d in stationary or nonstationary fractionally integrated processes. The resampling method implements a sieve bootstrap method on data prefiltered by a preliminary estimate of the long-memory parameter. For the initial estimate, we recommend the local polynomial Whittle with noise (LPWN) estimator in Frederiksen et al. (2012) to reduce bias, especially in the presence…