Estimation and Prediction for Stochastic Blockstructures
随机块结构的估计与预测AI 解读 ↓
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随机块结构的估计与预测AI 解读 ↓
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A statistical approach to a posteriori blockmodeling for digraphs and valued digraphs is proposed. The probability model assumes that the vertices of the digraph are partitioned into several unobserved (latent) classes and that the probability distribution of the relation between two vertices depends only on the classes to which they belong. A Bayesian estimator based on Gibbs sampling is proposed. The basic model is not identified, because class labels are arbitrary. The resulting identifiability problems are solved by restricting inference to the posterior distributions of invariant functions of the parameters and the vertex class membership. In addition, models are considered where class labels are identified by prior distributions for the class membership of some of the vertices. The model is illustrated by an example from the social networks literature (Kapferer's tailor shop).
从稀缺且含噪的动态观测中进行贝叶斯超图推断
Inferring higher-order interaction structure from observations of dynamics is a central challenge in complex systems, particularly when data are scarce, noisy, or concentrated in lower-dimensional regions of state space. We develop Bayes-THIS, a Bayesian extension of Taylor-based Hypergraph Inference using SINDy (THIS), which reconstructs hypergraph structure from time-series data by identifying sparse Taylor coefficients associated with pairwise and higher-order…
广义泊松动态网络模型
Count-weighted temporal networks often exhibit unequal dispersion in the edge weights, which cannot be fully explained by modelling observational heterogeneity through latent factors in the conditional mean. Therefore, we propose new dynamic network model classes exploiting the Generalized Poisson distribution to capture both under- and overdispersion. We consider three different dynamic specifications: latent factor dynamics, autoregressive dynamics, and latent position…
存在溢出效应的合成控制方法:识别与贝叶斯推断
The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for causal inference with panel data, particularly when the number of treated units is small. It relies on the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA), ruling out spillover effects. However, interventions often affect not only treated but also untreated units. This study proposes a novel panel data method that extends standard SCM to account for spillovers and estimate both treatment and spillover effects. The approach…
处理后混杂下集群随机试验因果机制的贝叶斯非参数识别与估计
Causal mediation analysis in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) is essential for explaining how cluster-level interventions affect individual outcomes, yet it is complicated by interference, post-treatment confounding, and hierarchical covariate adjustment. We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework that simultaneously accommodates interference and a post-treatment confounder that precedes the mediator. Identification is achieved through a multivariate Gaussian copula that…
未测混杂与干扰并存时的空间因果推断
This manuscript unites causal inference and spatial statistics, presenting novel insights for causal inference in spatial data analysis, and drawing from tools in spatial statistics to estimate causal effects. We introduce spatial causal graphs to highlight that spatial confounding and interference can be entangled, in that investigating the presence of one can lead to wrongful conclusions in the presence of the other. Moreover, we show that spatial dependence in the…
热浪健康效应的估计:因果推断框架
The harmful relationship between heatwaves and health has been extensively documented in medical and epidemiological literature. However, most evidence is associational and cannot be interpreted causally unless strong assumptions are made. In this paper, we first make explicit the assumptions underlying the statistical methods frequently used in the heatwave literature and demonstrate when these assumptions might break down in heatwave contexts. To address these…