Identifying Economic Factors Affecting Unemployment Rates in the United States
识别与美国失业率相关的经济因素AI 解读 ↓
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识别与美国失业率相关的经济因素
- 研究问题
- 在美国约二十年的观察中，GDP、通胀、失业保险、股指及健康、种族和教育因素与失业率有怎样的关系？
- 方法与思路
- 作者采用线性回归研究宏观变量与失业率的联系，并报告健康事件相关性以及不同种族、教育群体的失业差异。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要报告通胀与失业率正相关，GDP、失业保险和股指负相关，并称通胀最重要；同时描述种族和教育群体差异。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对数据频率与样本构成、回归设定、显著性和变量重要性的定义，以及时间趋势、反向关系和遗漏变量如何处理。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，同行评审或期刊接收未获核实；摘要未说明因果识别设计，所述关系不能据此解释为失业的因果机制。
原文摘要
In this study, we seek to understand how macroeconomic factors such as GDP, inflation, Unemployment Insurance, and S&P 500 index; as well as microeconomic factors such as health, race, and educational attainment impacted the unemployment rate for about 20 years in the United States. Our research question is to identify which factor(s) contributed the most to the unemployment rate surge using linear regression. Results from our studies showed that GDP (negative), inflation (positive), Unemployment Insurance (contrary to popular opinion; negative), and S&P 500 index (negative) were all significant factors, with inflation being the most important one. As for health issue factors, our model produced resultant correlation scores for occurrences of Cardiovascular Disease, Neurological Disease, and Interpersonal Violence with unemployment. Race as a factor showed a huge discrepancies in the unemployment rate between Black Americans compared to their counterparts. Asians had the lowest unemployment rate throughout the years. As for education attainment, results showed that having a higher education attainment significantly reduced one chance of unemployment. People with higher degrees had the lowest unemployment rate. Results of this study will be beneficial for policymakers and researchers in understanding the unemployment rate during the pandemic.