On the Interpolation Error of Nonlinear Attention versus Linear Regression
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Attention has become the core building block of modern machine learning (ML) by efficiently capturing the long-range dependencies among input tokens. Its inherently parallelizable structure allows for efficient performance scaling with the rapidly increasing size of both data and model parameters. Despite its central role, the theoretical understanding of Attention, especially in the nonlinear setting, is progressing at a more modest pace. This paper provides a precise characterization of the interpolation error for a nonlinear Attention, in the high-dimensional regime where the number of input tokens $n$ and the embedding dimension $p$ are both large and comparable. Under a signal-plus-noise data model and for fixed Attention weights, we derive explicit (limiting) expressions for the mean-squared interpolation error. Leveraging recent advances in random matrix theory, we show that nonlinear Attention generally incurs a larger interpolation error than linear regression on random inputs. However, this gap vanishes, and can even be reversed, when the input contains a structured signal, particularly if the Attention weights align with the signal direction. Our theoretical insights are supported by numerical experiments.
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian ensemble model used in regression and classification analysis. Under this modeling framework, the regression function is approximated by an ensemble of decision trees, interpreted as weak learners. In this work, we propose a generalization of the BART model that has two main features: first, it automatically selects the number of decision trees using the given data; second, the model allows clusters of…
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嵌套工具变量分析:转换者平均处理效应及可推广性
Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the non-ignorable treatment received. Under a monotonicity assumption, a valid IV nonparametrically identifies the average treatment effect among a latent complier subgroup, whose generalizability is often under debate. In many studies, there exist…
Traditional machine learning relies on explicit models and domain assumptions, often limiting flexibility and interpretability. We introduce a "model-free" framework of instance-based learning using surprisal (information theoretic uncertainty) to directly analyze and perform inferences from raw data, eliminating distribution modeling, reducing bias, and enabling efficient updates including direct edits and deletion of training data. By quantifying relevance through…