Measuring tail risk at high-frequency: An $L_1$-regularized extreme value regression approach with unit-root predictors
高频尾部风险测度:含单位根预测变量的 L1 正则化极值回归AI 解读 ↓
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高频尾部风险测度:含单位根预测变量的 L1 正则化极值回归AI 解读 ↓
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We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root predictors to appropriately capture the time-varying behaviour of the distribution of high-frequency extreme losses. To characterize trading activity and market uncertainty, we consider several volatility and liquidity predictors, and propose a two-step adaptive $L_1$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator to select the most appropriate ones. We establish the oracle property of the proposed estimator for selecting both stationary and local unit-root predictors, and show its good finite sample properties in an extensive simulation study. Studying the high-frequency extreme losses of nine large liquid U.S. stocks using 42 liquidity and volatility predictors, we find the severity of extreme losses to be well predicted by low levels of price impact in period of high volatility of liquidity and volatility.
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半正定积分协方差估计:矩阵分解与异步交易
An estimator of the ex-post covariation of log-prices under asynchronicity and microstructure noise is proposed. It uses the Cholesky factorization of the covariance matrix in order to exploit the heterogeneity in trading intensities to estimate the different parameters sequentially with as many observations as possible. The estimator is positive semidefinite by construction. We derive asymptotic results and confirm their good finite sample properties by means of a Monte…