Posterior consistency for the spectral density of non-Gaussian stationary time series
非高斯平稳时间序列谱密度的后验一致性AI 解读 ↓
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非高斯平稳时间序列谱密度的后验一致性AI 解读 ↓
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Various nonparametric approaches for Bayesian spectral density estimation of stationary time series have been suggested in the literature, mostly based on the Whittle likelihood approximation. A generalization of this approximation has been proposed in Kirch et al. who prove posterior consistency for spectral density estimation in combination with the Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for Gaussian time series. In this paper, we will extend the posterior consistency result to non-Gaussian time series by employing a general consistency theorem of Shalizi for dependent data and misspecified models. As a special case, posterior consistency for the spectral density under the Whittle likelihood as proposed by Choudhuri, Ghosal and Roy is also extended to non-Gaussian time series. Small sample properties of this approach are illustrated with several examples of non-Gaussian time series.
半参数高维时间序列关系图的贝叶斯学习
Time series data arising in many applications nowadays are high-dimensional. A large number of parameters describe features of these time series. We propose a novel approach to modeling a high-dimensional time series through several independent univariate time series, which are then orthogonally rotated and sparsely linearly transformed. With this approach, any specified intrinsic relations among component time series given by a graphical structure can be maintained at all…
让时间提供信息:中断时间序列的识别与高斯过程估计
We study causal inference in interrupted time series designs where a treatment affects every unit simultaneously, so that the contemporaneous controls used by difference-in-differences and synthetic control are unavailable and the counterfactual must be extrapolated from a unit's own pre-treatment history. We establish identification within the potential outcomes framework and estimate the counterfactual by Gaussian process regression. Rather than committing to a single…
用 BAND 缓解维度灾难:高维非参数分布估计
Minimax-optimal rates for multivariate distribution estimation are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a sparse Bayesian network approach in which each conditional probability is estimated using sparsity-aware conditional mean methods. The resulting estimator, \textit{BAyesian Network Distribution regression} (BAND), handles mixed data types in high-dimensional time series and achieves polynomial total variation convergence rates while allowing the…
谱密度矩阵的多元贝叶斯 P 样条估计及 LISA TDI 噪声应用
We present a Bayesian P-spline method for estimating the frequency-dependent cross-spectral density matrix of stationary multivariate time series. The inverse spectral matrix is parametrised through its frequency-varying Cholesky decomposition, which guarantees Hermitian positive definiteness at every frequency. Each real log-diagonal entry and each real and imaginary off-diagonal entry is given an independent penalised B-spline prior that controls smoothness. Inference uses…
比例时间序列的 Beta-GAM 隐 Markov 模型
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distribution belongs to the Beta family. In each latent state, the Beta mean is linked to covariates through a generalized additive model (GAM) with spline-based smooth functions, while the Beta precision is state-specific, enabling flexible modeling of both nonlinear covariate effects and regime-dependent…
局部平稳过程的贝叶斯非参数谱分析
Stationarity plays a pivotal role in time series analysis. It is not only the basis for the derivation of general asymptotic theory but it also allows an efficient analysis in the frequency domain via the Whittle likelihood, based on the asymptotic independence of the Fourier coefficients. However, many regularly sampled data derived from the observation of physical or ecological processes, for instance, are only locally stationary. They exhibit slowly evolving spectra and…