Semiparametric and Nonparametric Regression Analysis of Longitudinal Data
纵向数据的半参数与非参数回归分析AI 解读 ↓
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纵向数据的半参数与非参数回归分析AI 解读 ↓
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This article deals with the regression analysis of repeated measurements taken at irregular and possibly subject-specific time points. The proposed semiparametric and nonparametric models postulate that the marginal distribution for the repeatedly measured response variable Y at time t is related to the vector of possibly time-varying covariates X through the equations E{Y(t)|| X(t} = α0(t) + β′0X(t) and E{Y(t)||X(t)} = α0(t)+ β′0(t)X(t), where α0(t) is an arbitrary function of t, β0 is a vector of constant regression coefficients, and β0(t) is a vector of time-varying regression coefficients. The stochastic structure of the process Y(·) is completely unspecified. We develop a class of least squares type estimators for β0, which is proven to be n½-consistent and asymptotically normal with simple variance estimators. Furthermore, we develop a closed-form estimator for a cumulative function of β0(t), which is shown to be n½-consistent and, on proper normalization, converges weakly to a zero-mean Gaussian process with an easily estimated covariance function. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the asymptotic approximations are accurate for moderate sample sizes and that the efficiencies of the proposed semiparametric estimators are high relative to their parametric counterparts. An illustration with longitudinal CD4 cell count data taken from an HIV/AIDS clinical trial is provided.
通过张量补全推断序贯处理的因果效应
Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) are popular for causal inference of sequential treatments in longitudinal observational studies, which however are sensitive to model misspecification. To achieve flexible modeling, we envision the potential outcomes to form a three-dimensional tensor indexed by subject, time, and treatment regime and propose a tensorized history-restricted MSM (HRMSM). The semi-parametric tensor factor model allows us to leverage the underlying low-rank…
半参数时变面板数据模型的估计与推断
This article introduces a new semiparametric panel data model that accounts for time-varying coefficients and aligns with recent advancements in factor models featuring nonparametric loading functions. We propose a profile marginal integration (PMI) method to jointly estimate the unknown quantities in a series of easily implementable steps. The asymptotic properties of these estimators are established. Additionally, we provide a hypothesis test to assess the validity of…
具有时变内生性的相关随机系数面板模型
This paper studies a class of linear panel models with random coefficients. We do not restrict the joint distribution of the time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity and the covariates. We investigate identification of the average partial effect (APE) when fixed-effect techniques cannot be used to control for the correlation between the regressors and the time-varying disturbances. Relying on control variables, we develop a constructive two-step identification argument. The…
利用双重差分与机器学习高效估计纵向处理效应
Difference-in-differences is based on a parallel trends assumption, which states that changes over time in average potential outcomes are independent of treatment assignment, possibly conditional on covariates. With time-varying treatments, parallel trends assumptions can identify many types of parameters, but most work has focused on group-time average treatment effects and similar parameters conditional on the treatment trajectory. This paper focuses instead on…
含固定效应与时变系数的半参数空间自回归面板模型
This article considers a semiparametric spatial autoregressive (SAR) panel data model with fixed effects and time-varying coefficients. The time-varying coefficients are allowed to follow unknown functions of time, while the other parameters are assumed to be unknown constants. We propose a local linear quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method to obtain consistent estimators for the SAR coefficient, the variance of the error term, and the nonparametric time-varying…
稳健预测
We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about model misspecification or structural breaks. We derive "robust" forecasts which minimize maximum risk or regret over the set of forecast distributions. We show that for a large class of models including semiparametric panel data models for…